ITF Men · Tennis · Jul 27, 2026 08:40 UTC · avg book margin 8.1%
Guarducci–Borisov moneyline showed 17.1% slack at Neds; market closed the gap before serve, which is what the long-run pattern tracks
Omenizer detected 5 bookmakers pricing this bet above the no-vig fair near close — this story covers one of them. Members see the full board, live.
The ITF Men moneyline between Federico Guarducci and Maximilian Borisov carried a pricing discrepancy our board caught in time: Neds quoted 1.64 in decimal, running 17.1% softer than sharp consensus. Backers who seized that price held it while liquidity lasted.
Outcome: 1–2. The backed side lost—single tennis matches behave as statistical coin flips around any edge, so we surface flagged prices regardless of direction.
Where professionals focus: the market had repriced toward the flagged side by kickoff, closing +10.9% better than our initial capture point (positive closing-line value). CLV separates signal from noise because final scores bounce randomly, but market movement before play does not.
Tennis moneyline signals in this odds band have generated +9.7% ROI on 670 settled bets tracked on the board.
Detection runs live as odds release, every day before competition, not in hindsight. The board surfaces these mispricings while backers can still act on them.
Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.
AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW
· what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different,
already-settled matchPRO
Sebastian Baez vs Arthur Rinderknech
· ATP World Tour · Tennis — pick Sebastian Baez
@ 2.00
77Omen Score
This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal.
The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed,
so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked
🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).
EV by devig methodthe same price run through every de-margining method
+5.8%
Shin
+5.8%
Power
+5.8%
Additive
-1.2%
Worst case
+5.8%
Multiplicative
Insights
High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
Bookmaker
Odds
Vs fair
Sx.Bet
2.01
+5.3%
Novig
2.00
+4.8%
CampoBet
2.00
+4.8%
DraftKings
1.99
+4.3%
Matchbook
1.98
+3.8%
Betfair Exchange
1.97
+3.3%
Betfair Exchange (AU)
1.97
+3.3%
Bet105
1.96
+2.8%
Winpot
1.96
+2.8%
Ninja Casino
1.96
+2.8%
Bodog
1.95
+2.3%
Betano
1.95
+2.3%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
2.00 odds → 50% implied win probability
52%
Fair win probability
+5.5% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+6.4% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
Proven Playbook matchesconditions are members-only
• steam entry + home side 🔒 (Any) — +6.8% settled ROI on 41% winners
• closing drift + liquid market 🔒 (Any) — +6.7% settled ROI on 43% winners
• early value + short odds 🔒 (Any) — +4.4% settled ROI on 41% winners
• consensus fade + late entry 🔒 (Any) — +2.3% settled ROI on 44% winners
Past performance
Based on 357 bets exactly like this one over the last 60 days
+4.4% 🔒
Closing line value
+2.2% 🔒
Average return
+1.4% 🔒
Beat the closing line
34%
Win rate
Likely ROI range: +4.0% to +5.9% 🔒
Statistically reliable loser: even the best case still loses
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Jul 21, 18:05 UTC at 2.10 (+5.8% edge) → fair price at close 1.91 → closing-line value +4.0%
✅ Settled: WON · +1.10 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim
(read this signal's full story).
The live breakdown for Federico Guarducci vs Maximilian Borisov
is on the member board now ·
unlock with Pro
Record settled · last updated Jul 27, 2026 13:02 UTC · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).