ATP World Tour · Tennis · Jul 27, 2026 14:00 UTC · avg book margin 5.5%
Arnaldi over Musetti at paddypower: 19.4% misprice caught live, closed +0.8% by serve
This story covers a single signal — right now the member board has 737 live signals across 335 matches, found the same way.
paddypower's moneyline on the Matteo Arnaldi vs Lorenzo Musetti ATP World Tour match carried a detectable edge: decimal 2.00 priced 19.4% softer than sharp consensus. The board flagged it before play began. Backers who acted then held that price through to settlement.
Match finished 0–2 to the backed side. A 1-unit flat stake returned +1.00 units.
The metric that matters: by serve time the market had shifted toward the flagged side, closing +0.8% better than our initial capture. That positive closing-line value is what separates signal from luck—results scatter randomly, but pre-match price movement does not.
Across 2229 settled tennis moneyline bets in this odds band, the cumulative return sits at +6.5% ROI.
The engine that produces this analysis runs live as odds post, before competition kicks off—not retroactively. The board surfaces mispricings while there is still time to act on them.
Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.
AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW
· what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different,
already-settled matchPRO
Sebastian Baez vs Arthur Rinderknech
· ATP World Tour · Tennis — pick Sebastian Baez
@ 2.00
77Omen Score
This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal.
The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed,
so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked
🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).
EV by devig methodthe same price run through every de-margining method
+5.8%
Shin
+5.8%
Power
+5.8%
Additive
-1.2%
Worst case
+5.8%
Multiplicative
Insights
High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
Bookmaker
Odds
Vs fair
Sx.Bet
2.01
+5.3%
Novig
2.00
+4.8%
CampoBet
2.00
+4.8%
DraftKings
1.99
+4.3%
Matchbook
1.98
+3.8%
Betfair Exchange
1.97
+3.3%
Betfair Exchange (AU)
1.97
+3.3%
Bet105
1.96
+2.8%
Winpot
1.96
+2.8%
Ninja Casino
1.96
+2.8%
Bodog
1.95
+2.3%
Betano
1.95
+2.3%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
2.00 odds → 50% implied win probability
52%
Fair win probability
+5.5% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+6.4% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
Proven Playbook matchesconditions are members-only
• steam entry + home side 🔒 (Any) — +6.8% settled ROI on 41% winners
• closing drift + liquid market 🔒 (Any) — +6.7% settled ROI on 43% winners
• early value + short odds 🔒 (Any) — +4.4% settled ROI on 41% winners
• consensus fade + late entry 🔒 (Any) — +2.3% settled ROI on 44% winners
Past performance
Based on 357 bets exactly like this one over the last 60 days
+4.4% 🔒
Closing line value
+2.2% 🔒
Average return
+1.4% 🔒
Beat the closing line
34%
Win rate
Likely ROI range: +4.0% to +5.9% 🔒
Statistically reliable loser: even the best case still loses
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Jul 21, 18:05 UTC at 2.10 (+5.8% edge) → fair price at close 1.91 → closing-line value +4.0%
✅ Settled: WON · +1.10 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim
(read this signal's full story).
The live breakdown for Matteo Arnaldi vs Lorenzo Musetti
is on the member board now ·
unlock with Pro
Record settled · last updated Jul 28, 2026 05:42 UTC · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).