MLB · Baseball · Jul 27, 2026 22:40 UTC · avg book margin 6.5%

Pirates–Diamondbacks totals show 2.0% mispricing with 2 hours to first pitch — sharp consensus locked in

Offered2.05Fair price2.01+2.0% above fair
LIVE SIGNAL · exactly as it appears on the member board
93
Omen Score
+2.4%
Edge vs sharp consensus
80
Confidence
44
Sharp sources
Pick: Over Arizona Diamondbacks|4.5 @ 2.05
Fits 3 Playbook patterns — strongest has realized +36.6% on settled bets
This is 1 of the live signals on the board right now · see them all with a free account
A SAMPLE OF BOOKMAKERS ON THIS MATCH · right now — every price against the same no-vig fair
BookmakerSideOddsVs fair
KuttArizona Diamondbacks2.07-0.1%
KuttPittsburgh Pirates1.93-0.4%
NovigArizona Diamondbacks2.06-0.6%
SX BetArizona Diamondbacks2.06-0.6%
SharpArizona Diamondbacks2.06-0.6%
Tailgate ExchangeArizona Diamondbacks2.06-0.6%
NovigPittsburgh Pirates1.93-0.8%
STN SportsArizona Diamondbacks2.05-1.1%
4CxArizona Diamondbacks2.04-1.6%
Prime SportsArizona Diamondbacks2.04-1.6%
BoomersArizona Diamondbacks2.04-1.6%
Matchbook ExchangeArizona Diamondbacks2.04-1.6%
Prophet XArizona Diamondbacks2.04-1.6%
YouWagerArizona Diamondbacks2.04-1.6%
BetManiaArizona Diamondbacks2.04-1.6%
Paddy PowerPittsburgh Pirates1.91-1.7%
BetUSArizona Diamondbacks2.03-2.0%
bet105Arizona Diamondbacks2.03-2.0%
EverygameArizona Diamondbacks2.03-2.0%
SX BetPittsburgh Pirates1.90-2.1%

Margins and best-price rates for every book we track

As Pittsburgh Pirates and Arizona Diamondbacks take the field (MLB), sportsbooks are scattered on the totals line. One side has drifted 2.0% beyond where independent sharp operators anchor fair value—and the gap is priced in right now, in real time, with 2 hours before play begins.

Wide pricing dispersion across the market signals genuine disagreement—and sharp consensus reveals which side carries the mispricing.

44 independent sharp sources form the backbone of this consensus, so the fair-value anchor emerges from aggregated professional judgment, not a single book's model.

Three historical patterns from our Playbook align with this signal; the highest-performing setup has returned +36.6% ROI on closed wagers.

The numbers have precedent in this corner of the market: baseball totals at comparable odds have posted +1.4% ROI across 1253 settled bets in our database.

Mispricings at this scale don't hold through gameday: comparable totals edges have historically corrected within roughly 20 hours as sharp capital reprices the line.

Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.

AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW · what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different, already-settled match PRO
Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles · MLB · Baseball — pick Boston Red Sox @ 2.32
99 Omen Score

This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal. The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed, so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked 🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).

Why this bet
+2.5%
Entry edge
+0.1%
Edge near close
+0.0%
Risk-adjusted edge
2.32
Fair price (no-vig)
2.50
Entry odds
Quality
60/100
Confidence
2
Sharp books
Standard
Class
Market state: Sharp consensus (2 books) · priced from: Sharp price
Sizing
1.7%
Recommended stake
0.1%
Full Kelly (theoretical max)
EV by devig methodthe same price run through every de-margining method
+1.9%
Shin
+1.7%
Power
+2.5%
Additive
-4.9%
Worst case
+2.5%
Multiplicative
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
BookmakerOddsVs fair
FanDuel2.32+0.1%
Bovada2.30-0.8%
Espn-Bet2.30-0.8%
Betanysports2.30-0.8%
1xBet2.29-1.2%
Matchbook2.26-2.5%
BetUS2.25-2.9%
Gtbets2.25-2.9%
BetMGM2.25-2.9%
Coolbet2.25-2.9%
Sport8882.25-2.9%
Everygame2.25-2.9%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
2.32 odds → 43% implied win probability
43%
Fair win probability
+1.5% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+6.2% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
Proven Playbook matchesconditions are members-only
steam entry + home side 🔒 (Baseball) — +26.5% settled ROI on 53% winners
closing drift + liquid market 🔒 (Baseball) — +23.3% settled ROI on 57% winners
early value + short odds 🔒 (Baseball) — +14.7% settled ROI on 48% winners
consensus fade + late entry 🔒 (Any) — +7.1% settled ROI on 43% winners
Past performance

Based on 58 bets exactly like this one over the last 60 days

+1.2% 🔒
Closing line value
+2.7% 🔒
Average return
+2.0% 🔒
Beat the closing line
59%
Win rate
Likely ROI range: +7.2% to +3.0% 🔒
Statistically reliable winner: even the worst case is profitable
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Jul 20, 14:54 UTC at 2.50 (+2.5% edge) → fair price at close 2.32 → closing-line value +5.2%
✅ Settled: WON · +1.50 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim (read this signal's full story). The live breakdown for Pittsburgh Pirates vs Arizona Diamondbacks is on the member board now · unlock with Pro
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The strategies behind signals like this · More stories

Live market record · data refreshes with this page · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).