ITF Women · Tennis · Jul 28, 2026 10:00 UTC · avg book margin 8.4%

Jana Otzipka–Anastasiia Firman: 15.0% mispriced moneyline closed toward the flagged side before the match — closing-line value is how this edge repeats

Offered at espn-bet2.65Fair price2.30+15.0% above fair

This story covers a single signal — right now the member board has 668 live signals across 364 matches, found the same way.

The ITF Women moneyline between Jana Otzipka and Anastasiia Firman carried a pricing inefficiency our system caught: espn-bet quoted decimal 2.65, which ran 15.0% wider than sharp consensus. The board published the signal while action was still possible.

Match outcome: 0–2. The backed position failed. Single matches are inherently unpredictable, and we disclose all results without filtering.

What matters for long-term profit: market prices drifted favorably by kickoff, settling +0.1% better than the detection point — that is closing-line value, the metric professionals use to separate skill from noise. Final scores fluctuate; pre-match repricing does not.

Tennis moneyline signals at this odds level have accumulated +6.3% ROI across 2286 completed bets tracked on our board.

The algorithm runs live each day before play begins, detecting mispricings as odds move — not after matches end. The board surfaces flagged positions while the window to act remains open.

Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.

AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW · what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different, already-settled match PRO
Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Kristina Liutova · WTA Tour · Tennis — pick Kristina Liutova @ 3.10
81 Omen Score

This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal. The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed, so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked 🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).

Why this bet
+12.0%
Entry edge
+7.2%
Edge near close
+0.8%
Risk-adjusted edge
2.89
Fair price (no-vig)
3.65
Entry odds
Quality
95/100
Confidence
3
Sharp books
Prime pick
Class
Market state: Strong sharp consensus (3+ books) · priced from: Sharp price
Sizing
4.5%
Recommended stake
3.4%
Full Kelly (theoretical max)
EV by devig methodthe same price run through every de-margining method
+9.7%
Shin
+8.4%
Power
+12.0%
Additive
-5.4%
Worst case
+12.0%
Multiplicative
Insights
High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
BookmakerOddsVs fair
Bwin3.10+7.2%
Sportingbet3.10+7.2%
Sportsinteraction3.10+7.2%
Superbet3.05+5.5%
Sx.Bet3.03+4.8%
Tailgate Exchange3.03+4.8%
Matchbook3.01+4.1%
Betway3.00+3.7%
Casumo3.00+3.7%
Unibet3.00+3.7%
Proline3.00+3.7%
Betjack3.00+3.7%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
3.10 odds → 32% implied win probability
35%
Fair win probability
+4.1% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+7.4% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
Proven Playbook matchesconditions are members-only
early value + short odds 🔒 (Any) — +7.9% settled ROI on 41% winners
consensus fade + late entry 🔒 (Any) — +6.3% settled ROI on 43% winners
steam entry + home side 🔒 (Any) — +4.3% settled ROI on 42% winners
Past performance

Based on 441 bets exactly like this one over the last 60 days

+7.0% 🔒
Closing line value
+7.7% 🔒
Average return
+6.3% 🔒
Beat the closing line
39%
Win rate
Likely ROI range: +3.2% to +8.3% 🔒
No reliable edge either way: too close to break-even to call
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Jul 27, 12:51 UTC at 3.65 (+12.0% edge) → fair price at close 2.89 → closing-line value +12.6%
✅ Settled: WON · +2.65 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim (read this signal's full story). The live breakdown for Jana Otzipka vs Anastasiia Firman is on the member board now · unlock with Pro
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Record settled · last updated Jul 29, 2026 05:52 UTC · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).