MLB · Baseball · Jul 28, 2026 23:40 UTC · avg book margin 6.8%
Twins–Royals 3–2: totals pricing was 3.7% soft at PointsBet, closing-line value turned the profit from luck into edge
A mismatch appeared in the totals market for the Minnesota Twins vs Kansas City Royals matchup before the first pitch. PointsBet was quoting decimal 2.00, roughly 3.7% above where sharp books had settled. The board identified the slack and published it while the window remained open for action.
The teams finished 3–2. Bettors who seized the flagged price collected +1.00 units per unit wagered.
Where professionals separate skill from randomness: the market had drifted +2.1% in the flagged direction by game time. That closing-line value movement—not the final score—is how bankrolls grow. One game landing right tells you nothing. Markets moving toward your position before kickoff tells you the original price was indeed soft.
Over 1271 completed bets, this category of signal (baseball totals in the mid-odds range) has tracked to +2.0% ROI.
The system runs every day at post time, surfacing pricing gaps while they exist—not after the final out is recorded. The live board remains the place to find them before they collapse.
Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.
AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW
· what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different,
already-settled matchPRO
Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles
· MLB · Baseball — pick Boston Red Sox
@ 2.32
99Omen Score
This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal.
The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed,
so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked
🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).
EV by devig methodthe same price run through every de-margining method
+1.9%
Shin
+1.7%
Power
+2.5%
Additive
-4.9%
Worst case
+2.5%
Multiplicative
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
Bookmaker
Odds
Vs fair
FanDuel
2.32
+0.1%
Bovada
2.30
-0.8%
Espn-Bet
2.30
-0.8%
Betanysports
2.30
-0.8%
1xBet
2.29
-1.2%
Matchbook
2.26
-2.5%
BetUS
2.25
-2.9%
Gtbets
2.25
-2.9%
BetMGM
2.25
-2.9%
Coolbet
2.25
-2.9%
Sport888
2.25
-2.9%
Everygame
2.25
-2.9%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
2.32 odds → 43% implied win probability
43%
Fair win probability
+1.5% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+6.2% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
Proven Playbook matchesconditions are members-only
• steam entry + home side 🔒 (Baseball) — +26.5% settled ROI on 53% winners
• closing drift + liquid market 🔒 (Baseball) — +23.3% settled ROI on 57% winners
• early value + short odds 🔒 (Baseball) — +14.7% settled ROI on 48% winners
• consensus fade + late entry 🔒 (Any) — +7.1% settled ROI on 43% winners
Past performance
Based on 58 bets exactly like this one over the last 60 days
+1.2% 🔒
Closing line value
+2.7% 🔒
Average return
+2.0% 🔒
Beat the closing line
59%
Win rate
Likely ROI range: +7.2% to +3.0% 🔒
Statistically reliable winner: even the worst case is profitable
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Jul 20, 14:54 UTC at 2.50 (+2.5% edge) → fair price at close 2.32 → closing-line value +5.2%
✅ Settled: WON · +1.50 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim
(read this signal's full story).
The live breakdown for Minnesota Twins vs Kansas City Royals
is on the member board now ·
unlock with Pro
Record settled · last updated Jul 29, 2026 05:51 UTC · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).