MLB · Baseball · Jul 28, 2026 01:45 UTC · avg book margin 4.7%
Giants-Brewers moneyline shows 2.4% soft pricing at GTbets with 22 hours to game time
Omenizer detected 5 bookmakers pricing this bet above the no-vig fair at last refresh — this story covers one of them. Members see the full board, live.
LIVE SIGNAL · exactly as it appears on the member board
62
Omen Score
+0.8%
Edge vs sharp consensus
95
Confidence
6
Sharp sources
Pick: San Francisco Giants
@ 2.26 — best price at BetUS
Fits 8 Playbook patterns — strongest has realized +20.7% on settled bets
GTbets is quoting the moneyline for San Francisco Giants vs Milwaukee Brewers (MLB) at decimal odds of 2.28—a gap of 2.4% below where sharp operators have priced the same outcome, with 22 hours remaining before first pitch. The mismatch is active now, not historical; the pricing window remains open as this data loads.
The outlier is sitting 3.0 standard deviations from the consensus cluster, which rules out statistical noise and marks a material pricing breach.
The fair-value baseline rests on aggregation from 6 independent sharp sources, so the consensus is not one operator's estimate but a professional coalition.
This configuration aligns with 8 documented patterns in our Playbook. The highest-performing match has returned +20.7% ROI on closed bets.
The track record for baseball moneylines in this odds band is concrete: across 548 settled signals, the aggregate return is +12.2% ROI.
Pricing gaps at this scale do not hold indefinitely. Historical data shows comparable mispricings in this market have typically compressed within about 9 hours.
Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.
AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW
· what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different,
already-settled matchPRO
Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles
· MLB · Baseball — pick Boston Red Sox
@ 2.32
99Omen Score
This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal.
The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed,
so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked
🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).
EV by devig methodthe same price run through every de-margining method
+1.9%
Shin
+1.7%
Power
+2.5%
Additive
-4.9%
Worst case
+2.5%
Multiplicative
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
Bookmaker
Odds
Vs fair
FanDuel
2.32
+0.1%
Bovada
2.30
-0.8%
Espn-Bet
2.30
-0.8%
Betanysports
2.30
-0.8%
1xBet
2.29
-1.2%
Matchbook
2.26
-2.5%
BetUS
2.25
-2.9%
Gtbets
2.25
-2.9%
BetMGM
2.25
-2.9%
Coolbet
2.25
-2.9%
Sport888
2.25
-2.9%
Everygame
2.25
-2.9%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
2.32 odds → 43% implied win probability
43%
Fair win probability
+1.5% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+6.2% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
Proven Playbook matchesconditions are members-only
• steam entry + home side 🔒 (Baseball) — +26.5% settled ROI on 53% winners
• closing drift + liquid market 🔒 (Baseball) — +23.3% settled ROI on 57% winners
• early value + short odds 🔒 (Baseball) — +14.7% settled ROI on 48% winners
• consensus fade + late entry 🔒 (Any) — +7.1% settled ROI on 43% winners
Past performance
Based on 58 bets exactly like this one over the last 60 days
+1.2% 🔒
Closing line value
+2.7% 🔒
Average return
+2.0% 🔒
Beat the closing line
59%
Win rate
Likely ROI range: +7.2% to +3.0% 🔒
Statistically reliable winner: even the worst case is profitable
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Jul 20, 14:54 UTC at 2.50 (+2.5% edge) → fair price at close 2.32 → closing-line value +5.2%
✅ Settled: WON · +1.50 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim
(read this signal's full story).
The live breakdown for San Francisco Giants vs Milwaukee Brewers
is on the member board now ·
unlock with Pro
Live market record · data refreshes with this page · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).