ITF Men · Tennis · Jul 28, 2026 10:00 UTC · avg book margin 8.1%

Cocola–Comino ITF moneyline: 13.8% overpriced at Bodog, market corrected before the serve—the repeating pattern beneath a losing ticket

Offered at Bodog2.80Fair price2.46+13.8% above fair

This story covers a single signal — right now the member board has 618 live signals across 349 matches, found the same way.

The ITF Men matchup between Sebastiano Cocola and Lorenzo Comino showed pricing slack at Bodog: decimal 2.80 sat 13.8% soft against the sharp consensus. Our detection system posted the signal while traders could still move into the position.

The match ended 0–2. The flagged side did not win. Individual matches carry the uncertainty of coin flips, so we publish all outcomes, losses included.

What distinguishes edge from luck is what the market itself did: by first serve, odds had moved back toward the flagged number—closing +0.8% favorable versus the detection moment. Professionals measure bets on closing-line value, not match results, because prices respond to real information while scorelines bounce around noise.

This category of signal—tennis moneyline in the mid-odds band—has posted +7.2% ROI after 2360 bets resolved on the board.

The system that wrote this ran live before play started, scanning for mispricings while markets were still liquid. It does not wait for final scores. The board stays open to action while the window exists.

Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.

AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW · what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different, already-settled match PRO
Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Kristina Liutova · WTA Tour · Tennis — pick Kristina Liutova @ 3.10
81 Omen Score

This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal. The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed, so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked 🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).

Why this bet
+12.0%
Entry edge
+7.2%
Edge near close
+0.8%
Risk-adjusted edge
2.89
Fair price (no-vig)
3.65
Entry odds
Quality
95/100
Confidence
3
Sharp books
Prime pick
Class
Market state: Strong sharp consensus (3+ books) · priced from: Sharp price
Sizing
4.5%
Recommended stake
3.4%
Full Kelly (theoretical max)
EV by devig methodthe same price run through every de-margining method
+9.7%
Shin
+8.4%
Power
+12.0%
Additive
-5.4%
Worst case
+12.0%
Multiplicative
Insights
High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
BookmakerOddsVs fair
Bwin3.10+7.2%
Sportingbet3.10+7.2%
Sportsinteraction3.10+7.2%
Superbet3.05+5.5%
Sx.Bet3.03+4.8%
Tailgate Exchange3.03+4.8%
Matchbook3.01+4.1%
Betway3.00+3.7%
Casumo3.00+3.7%
Unibet3.00+3.7%
Proline3.00+3.7%
Betjack3.00+3.7%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
3.10 odds → 32% implied win probability
35%
Fair win probability
+4.1% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+7.4% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
Proven Playbook matchesconditions are members-only
early value + short odds 🔒 (Any) — +7.9% settled ROI on 41% winners
consensus fade + late entry 🔒 (Any) — +6.3% settled ROI on 43% winners
steam entry + home side 🔒 (Any) — +4.3% settled ROI on 42% winners
Past performance

Based on 441 bets exactly like this one over the last 60 days

+7.0% 🔒
Closing line value
+7.7% 🔒
Average return
+6.3% 🔒
Beat the closing line
39%
Win rate
Likely ROI range: +3.2% to +8.3% 🔒
No reliable edge either way: too close to break-even to call
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Jul 27, 12:51 UTC at 3.65 (+12.0% edge) → fair price at close 3.18 → closing-line value +2.4%
✅ Settled: WON · +2.65 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim (read this signal's full story). The live breakdown for Sebastiano Cocola vs Lorenzo Comino is on the member board now · unlock with Pro
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Record settled · last updated Jul 30, 2026 06:03 UTC · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).