MLB · Baseball · Jul 29, 2026 23:40 UTC · avg book margin 6.5%

Chicago White Sox–New York Yankees totals market shows 2.1% deviation from sharp consensus, 8 hours from first pitch

Offered2.24Fair price2.19+2.1% above fair
LIVE SIGNAL · exactly as it appears on the member board
93
Omen Score
+2.1%
Edge vs sharp consensus
80
Confidence
45
Sharp sources
Pick: Over Chicago White Sox|3.5 @ 2.24
Fits 6 Playbook patterns — strongest has realized +13.0% on settled bets
This is 1 of the live signals on the board right now · see them all with a free account
A SAMPLE OF BOOKMAKERS ON THIS MATCH · right now — every price against the same no-vig fair
BookmakerSideOddsVs fair
KuttChicago White Sox2.36+1.0%
Tailgate ExchangeChicago White Sox2.35+0.6%
Prime SportsChicago White Sox2.35+0.6%
NovigChicago White Sox2.33-0.2%
EverygameChicago White Sox2.33-0.2%
Tailgate ExchangeNew York Yankees1.77-0.7%
SX BetChicago White Sox2.30-1.5%
SX BetNew York Yankees1.75-2.0%
NovigNew York Yankees1.74-2.3%
BetOpenlyNew York Yankees1.74-2.3%
4CxChicago White Sox2.28-2.4%
BetAnythingChicago White Sox2.28-2.4%
BraccoChicago White Sox2.28-2.4%
bet105Chicago White Sox2.28-2.4%
1XBetChicago White Sox2.28-2.4%
KuttNew York Yankees1.74-2.6%
Matchbook ExchangeNew York Yankees1.74-2.6%
Desert DiamondNew York Yankees1.74-2.6%
SugarHouseNew York Yankees1.74-2.6%
TwinSpiresNew York Yankees1.74-2.6%

Margins and best-price rates for every book we track

The totals market for tonight's Chicago White Sox vs New York Yankees (MLB) is displaying a measurable gap between retail and sharp books — one quoted level sits 2.1% away from where independent professionals have anchored fair value. The mispricing is active now, as this data refreshes, with 8 hours remaining before the first pitch.

When bookmakers quote divergent prices on the same market, one side is almost always wrong. The sharp consensus emerges from professional operators who repriced aggressively; retail books often lag.

45 independent sharp operators have converged on a baseline fair value — this isn't one book's take, but distributed professional judgment.

Our Playbook identifies 6 historically profitable patterns that match this signal structure. The highest-performing variant has generated +13.0% ROI across settled bets.

This exact market segment — baseball totals at mid-range odds — carries documented history: 1271 settled bets in our sample returned +2.0% ROI.

Mispricings in baseball totals tend to compress before game time. Comparable edges have historically held for around 20 hours before sharp capital closes the gap.

Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.

AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW · what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different, already-settled match PRO
Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles · MLB · Baseball — pick Boston Red Sox @ 2.32
99 Omen Score

This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal. The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed, so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked 🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).

Why this bet
+2.5%
Entry edge
+0.1%
Edge near close
+0.0%
Risk-adjusted edge
2.32
Fair price (no-vig)
2.50
Entry odds
Quality
60/100
Confidence
2
Sharp books
Standard
Class
Market state: Sharp consensus (2 books) · priced from: Sharp price
Sizing
1.7%
Recommended stake
0.1%
Full Kelly (theoretical max)
EV by devig methodthe same price run through every de-margining method
+1.9%
Shin
+1.7%
Power
+2.5%
Additive
-4.9%
Worst case
+2.5%
Multiplicative
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
BookmakerOddsVs fair
FanDuel2.32+0.1%
Bovada2.30-0.8%
Espn-Bet2.30-0.8%
Betanysports2.30-0.8%
1xBet2.29-1.2%
Matchbook2.26-2.5%
BetUS2.25-2.9%
Gtbets2.25-2.9%
BetMGM2.25-2.9%
Coolbet2.25-2.9%
Sport8882.25-2.9%
Everygame2.25-2.9%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
2.32 odds → 43% implied win probability
43%
Fair win probability
+1.5% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+6.2% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
Proven Playbook matchesconditions are members-only
steam entry + home side 🔒 (Baseball) — +26.5% settled ROI on 53% winners
closing drift + liquid market 🔒 (Baseball) — +23.3% settled ROI on 57% winners
early value + short odds 🔒 (Baseball) — +14.7% settled ROI on 48% winners
consensus fade + late entry 🔒 (Any) — +7.1% settled ROI on 43% winners
Past performance

Based on 58 bets exactly like this one over the last 60 days

+1.2% 🔒
Closing line value
+2.7% 🔒
Average return
+2.0% 🔒
Beat the closing line
59%
Win rate
Likely ROI range: +7.2% to +3.0% 🔒
Statistically reliable winner: even the worst case is profitable
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Jul 20, 14:54 UTC at 2.50 (+2.5% edge) → fair price at close 2.32 → closing-line value +5.2%
✅ Settled: WON · +1.50 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim (read this signal's full story). The live breakdown for Chicago White Sox vs New York Yankees is on the member board now · unlock with Pro
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The strategies behind signals like this · More stories

Live market record · data refreshes with this page · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).