MLB · Baseball · Jul 29, 2026 01:38 UTC · avg book margin 9.9%

Angels–Astros totals market shows 2.4% mispricing 29 hours before first pitch — sharp consensus vs wider book scatter

Offered2.15Fair price2.10+2.4% above fair
A SAMPLE OF BOOKMAKERS ON THIS MATCH · right now — every price against the same no-vig fair
BookmakerSideOddsVs fair
KuttHouston Astros2.00+0.0%
KuttLos Angeles Angels2.00+0.0%
NovigHouston Astros1.98-1.0%
NovigLos Angeles Angels1.98-1.0%
BetGRWLos Angeles Angels1.97-1.5%
Sportsbetting.agLos Angeles Angels1.97-1.5%
BetOnlineLos Angeles Angels1.97-1.5%
Tailgate ExchangeHouston Astros1.96-1.9%
SX BetHouston Astros1.96-1.9%
1XBetHouston Astros1.96-1.9%
1XBetLos Angeles Angels1.96-1.9%
Prime SportsHouston Astros1.96-1.9%
Tailgate ExchangeLos Angeles Angels1.95-2.4%
BraccoHouston Astros1.95-2.4%
BraccoLos Angeles Angels1.95-2.4%
PlayNowLos Angeles Angels1.95-2.4%
PointsBet (Australia)Los Angeles Angels1.95-2.4%
PointsBet (Ontario)Los Angeles Angels1.95-2.4%
SX BetLos Angeles Angels1.95-2.4%
bet105Houston Astros1.95-2.4%

Margins and best-price rates for every book we track

With 29 hours until Los Angeles Angels and Houston Astros take the field (MLB), the totals market is displaying measurable disagreement across sportsbooks. The sharp consensus has anchored fair value at a point where one side is currently priced 2.4% above consensus — a live discrepancy, not a historical observation, visible as this page loads.

When multiple sportsbooks fail to align on pricing, one or more of them have misread the market. The sharp consensus identifies which side has drifted into overprint territory.

Three independent sharp operators contribute to this consensus estimate, so the underlying fair-value anchor reflects aggregated judgment rather than a single operator's model.

The Playbook contains 2 historically profitable patterns that match this setup's characteristics, with the strongest delivering +11.4% ROI on closed bets.

Baseball totals at these price levels have trackable history: 1253 settled bets in this exact segment have returned +1.4% ROI across the database.

Mispricings at this magnitude tend to compress before the game starts. Comparable edges in totals markets have historically corrected within roughly 20 hours as professional capital reprices the line.

Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.

AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW · what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different, already-settled match PRO
Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles · MLB · Baseball — pick Boston Red Sox @ 2.32
99 Omen Score

This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal. The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed, so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked 🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).

Why this bet
+2.5%
Entry edge
+0.1%
Edge near close
+0.0%
Risk-adjusted edge
2.32
Fair price (no-vig)
2.50
Entry odds
Quality
60/100
Confidence
2
Sharp books
Standard
Class
Market state: Sharp consensus (2 books) · priced from: Sharp price
Sizing
1.7%
Recommended stake
0.1%
Full Kelly (theoretical max)
EV by devig methodthe same price run through every de-margining method
+1.9%
Shin
+1.7%
Power
+2.5%
Additive
-4.9%
Worst case
+2.5%
Multiplicative
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
BookmakerOddsVs fair
FanDuel2.32+0.1%
Bovada2.30-0.8%
Espn-Bet2.30-0.8%
Betanysports2.30-0.8%
1xBet2.29-1.2%
Matchbook2.26-2.5%
BetUS2.25-2.9%
Gtbets2.25-2.9%
BetMGM2.25-2.9%
Coolbet2.25-2.9%
Sport8882.25-2.9%
Everygame2.25-2.9%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
2.32 odds → 43% implied win probability
43%
Fair win probability
+1.5% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+6.2% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
Proven Playbook matchesconditions are members-only
steam entry + home side 🔒 (Baseball) — +26.5% settled ROI on 53% winners
closing drift + liquid market 🔒 (Baseball) — +23.3% settled ROI on 57% winners
early value + short odds 🔒 (Baseball) — +14.7% settled ROI on 48% winners
consensus fade + late entry 🔒 (Any) — +7.1% settled ROI on 43% winners
Past performance

Based on 58 bets exactly like this one over the last 60 days

+1.2% 🔒
Closing line value
+2.7% 🔒
Average return
+2.0% 🔒
Beat the closing line
59%
Win rate
Likely ROI range: +7.2% to +3.0% 🔒
Statistically reliable winner: even the worst case is profitable
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Jul 20, 14:54 UTC at 2.50 (+2.5% edge) → fair price at close 2.32 → closing-line value +5.2%
✅ Settled: WON · +1.50 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim (read this signal's full story). The live breakdown for Los Angeles Angels vs Houston Astros is on the member board now · unlock with Pro
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Live market record · data refreshes with this page · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).