ATP World Tour · Tennis · Jul 29, 2026 15:00 UTC · avg book margin 5.6%
Atmane–Tabilo moneyline tilted 13.0% soft at Betano; sharp consensus clusters elsewhere, 22 hours out
Omenizer detected 17 bookmakers pricing this bet above the no-vig fair at last refresh — this story covers one of them. Members see the full board, live.
LIVE SIGNAL · exactly as it appears on the member board
82
Omen Score
+13.0%
Edge vs sharp consensus
95
Confidence
3
Sharp sources
Pick: Alejandro Tabilo
@ 2.35 — best price at Betano
Fits 3 Playbook patterns — strongest has realized +7.9% on settled bets
Betano's moneyline for Terence Atmane vs Alejandro Tabilo (ATP World Tour) has drifted 13.0% above the sharp consensus with decimal odds of 2.35 — a live mispricing with 22 hours until first serve. The edge is observable now, not reconstructed after settlement; the pricing window remains active.
That outlier sits 3.2 standard deviations from the cluster of competing prices — statistical noise doesn't reach that far.
The consensus anchors on input from 3 independent sharp sources, ensuring the fair baseline reflects distributed judgment rather than a single operator's view.
Our Playbook surfaces 3 historical patterns matching this signal structure, with the top variant showing +7.9% ROI on resolved bets.
Tennis moneyline signals in this odds range have tracked +6.4% ROI across 2258 settled bets in our records — a measurable result from betting this segment repeatedly.
Mispricings this wide typically don't survive the pre-match window; comparable edges have reequilibrated in roughly 11 hours as sharp action finds and corrects the imbalance.
Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.
AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW
· what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different,
already-settled matchPRO
Sebastian Baez vs Arthur Rinderknech
· ATP World Tour · Tennis — pick Sebastian Baez
@ 2.00
77Omen Score
This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal.
The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed,
so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked
🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).
EV by devig methodthe same price run through every de-margining method
+5.8%
Shin
+5.8%
Power
+5.8%
Additive
-1.2%
Worst case
+5.8%
Multiplicative
Insights
High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
Bookmaker
Odds
Vs fair
Sx.Bet
2.01
+5.3%
Novig
2.00
+4.8%
CampoBet
2.00
+4.8%
DraftKings
1.99
+4.3%
Matchbook
1.98
+3.8%
Betfair Exchange
1.97
+3.3%
Betfair Exchange (AU)
1.97
+3.3%
Bet105
1.96
+2.8%
Winpot
1.96
+2.8%
Ninja Casino
1.96
+2.8%
Bodog
1.95
+2.3%
Betano
1.95
+2.3%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
2.00 odds → 50% implied win probability
52%
Fair win probability
+5.5% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+6.4% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
Proven Playbook matchesconditions are members-only
• steam entry + home side 🔒 (Any) — +6.8% settled ROI on 41% winners
• closing drift + liquid market 🔒 (Any) — +6.7% settled ROI on 43% winners
• early value + short odds 🔒 (Any) — +4.4% settled ROI on 41% winners
• consensus fade + late entry 🔒 (Any) — +2.3% settled ROI on 44% winners
Past performance
Based on 357 bets exactly like this one over the last 60 days
+4.4% 🔒
Closing line value
+2.2% 🔒
Average return
+1.4% 🔒
Beat the closing line
34%
Win rate
Likely ROI range: +4.0% to +5.9% 🔒
Statistically reliable loser: even the best case still loses
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Jul 21, 18:05 UTC at 2.10 (+5.8% edge) → fair price at close 1.91 → closing-line value +4.0%
✅ Settled: WON · +1.10 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim
(read this signal's full story).
The live breakdown for Terence Atmane vs Alejandro Tabilo
is on the member board now ·
unlock with Pro
Live market record · data refreshes with this page · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).