ATP World Tour · Tennis · Jul 30, 2026 03:20 UTC · avg book margin 5.3%
Norrie–Duckworth moneyline: Betway sits 6.1% soft to sharp consensus, 4 hours before play
Omenizer detected 17 bookmakers pricing this bet above the no-vig fair at last refresh — this story covers one of them. Members see the full board, live.
LIVE SIGNAL · exactly as it appears on the member board
83
Omen Score
+6.1%
Edge vs sharp consensus
95
Confidence
3
Sharp sources
Pick: James Duckworth
@ 3.50 — best price at Betway
Fits 5 Playbook patterns — strongest has realized +9.1% on settled bets
The moneyline for Cameron Norrie vs James Duckworth (ATP World Tour) has cleaved the betting market. At Betway, one outcome trades at decimal odds of 3.50—a price that runs 6.1% below the fair value anchored by independent sharp operators. The gap is live as this text publishes, 4 hours from first serve.
The outlier sits 2.6 standard deviations distant from the consensus cluster—far enough to rule out routine noise and mark a genuine misprice.
Three independent sharp sources converge on the consensus line, so the underlying fair value reflects professional judgment across multiple operations, not a single book's read.
This configuration aligns with 5 patterns in our Playbook that have shown profit. The strongest variant has logged +9.1% ROI on its settled record.
Tennis moneylines at these odds have tracked well in our sample. Across 2345 settled bets in this segment, the ROI came to +7.0%.
Mispricings of this amplitude typically don't hold through service. In comparable spots, sharp action has repriced the line within approximately 11 hours.
Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.
AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW
· what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different,
already-settled matchPRO
Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Kristina Liutova
· WTA Tour · Tennis — pick Kristina Liutova
@ 3.10
81Omen Score
This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal.
The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed,
so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked
🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).
EV by devig methodthe same price run through every de-margining method
+9.7%
Shin
+8.4%
Power
+12.0%
Additive
-5.4%
Worst case
+12.0%
Multiplicative
Insights
High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
Bookmaker
Odds
Vs fair
Bwin
3.10
+7.2%
Sportingbet
3.10
+7.2%
Sportsinteraction
3.10
+7.2%
Superbet
3.05
+5.5%
Sx.Bet
3.03
+4.8%
Tailgate Exchange
3.03
+4.8%
Matchbook
3.01
+4.1%
Betway
3.00
+3.7%
Casumo
3.00
+3.7%
Unibet
3.00
+3.7%
Proline
3.00
+3.7%
Betjack
3.00
+3.7%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
3.10 odds → 32% implied win probability
35%
Fair win probability
+4.1% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+7.4% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
Proven Playbook matchesconditions are members-only
• early value + short odds 🔒 (Any) — +7.9% settled ROI on 41% winners
• consensus fade + late entry 🔒 (Any) — +6.3% settled ROI on 43% winners
• steam entry + home side 🔒 (Any) — +4.3% settled ROI on 42% winners
Past performance
Based on 441 bets exactly like this one over the last 60 days
+7.0% 🔒
Closing line value
+7.7% 🔒
Average return
+6.3% 🔒
Beat the closing line
39%
Win rate
Likely ROI range: +3.2% to +8.3% 🔒
No reliable edge either way: too close to break-even to call
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Jul 27, 12:51 UTC at 3.65 (+12.0% edge) → fair price at close 3.18 → closing-line value +2.4%
✅ Settled: WON · +2.65 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim
(read this signal's full story).
The live breakdown for Cameron Norrie vs James Duckworth
is on the member board now ·
unlock with Pro
Live market record · data refreshes with this page · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).