ITF Women · Tennis · Jul 30, 2026 12:30 UTC · avg book margin 8.1%
Herea–Penickova ITF final: 0–2 result cashed the 6.3% mispricing flagged at DraftKings, and the market repriced to confirm it
Omenizer detected 11 bookmakers pricing this bet above the no-vig fair near close — this story covers one of them. Members see the full board, live.
DraftKings offered decimal 3.50 on the Carmen Andreea Herea vs Annika Penickova (ITF Women) moneyline when our system detected it: the price sat 6.3% softer than sharp consensus. The signal went live while liquidity held, giving bettors the window to pull the trigger.
The match finished 0–2. On a flat 1-unit stake, the position returned +2.50 units.
What separates luck from skill in betting: closing-line value. Between detection and serve time, the market shifted +15.2% in favor of the flagged side—a repricing that matters because professionals track price motion, not scorelines. Scorelines scatter; market moves contain real information.
Over 2466 resolved bets flagged in this corner of the market—ITF tennis moneyline, mid-range odds tier—cumulative return sits at +7.6% ROI.
The engine running this analysis scans daily before play starts, not after final scores land. Its job: surface mispricings while the market still lets you trade. Check the live board to see edges as they drop.
Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.
AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW
· what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different,
already-settled matchPRO
Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Kristina Liutova
· WTA Tour · Tennis — pick Kristina Liutova
@ 3.10
81Omen Score
This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal.
The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed,
so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked
🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).
EV by devig methodthe same price run through every de-margining method
+9.7%
Shin
+8.4%
Power
+12.0%
Additive
-5.4%
Worst case
+12.0%
Multiplicative
Insights
High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
Bookmaker
Odds
Vs fair
Bwin
3.10
+7.2%
Sportingbet
3.10
+7.2%
Sportsinteraction
3.10
+7.2%
Superbet
3.05
+5.5%
Sx.Bet
3.03
+4.8%
Tailgate Exchange
3.03
+4.8%
Matchbook
3.01
+4.1%
Betway
3.00
+3.7%
Casumo
3.00
+3.7%
Unibet
3.00
+3.7%
Proline
3.00
+3.7%
Betjack
3.00
+3.7%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
3.10 odds → 32% implied win probability
35%
Fair win probability
+4.1% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+7.4% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
Proven Playbook matchesconditions are members-only
• early value + short odds 🔒 (Any) — +7.9% settled ROI on 41% winners
• consensus fade + late entry 🔒 (Any) — +6.3% settled ROI on 43% winners
• steam entry + home side 🔒 (Any) — +4.3% settled ROI on 42% winners
Past performance
Based on 441 bets exactly like this one over the last 60 days
+7.0% 🔒
Closing line value
+7.7% 🔒
Average return
+6.3% 🔒
Beat the closing line
39%
Win rate
Likely ROI range: +3.2% to +8.3% 🔒
No reliable edge either way: too close to break-even to call
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Jul 27, 12:51 UTC at 3.65 (+12.0% edge) → fair price at close 3.18 → closing-line value +2.4%
✅ Settled: WON · +2.65 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim
(read this signal's full story).
The live breakdown for Carmen Andreea Herea vs Annika Penickova
is on the member board now ·
unlock with Pro
Record settled · last updated Aug 01, 2026 06:33 UTC · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).