ATP World Tour · Tennis · Jul 30, 2026 02:10 UTC · avg book margin 5.5%

Shapovalov–Pacheco Mendez moneyline: DraftKings quotes 15.4% above sharp markets 4 hours to serve

Offered at DraftKings3.44Fair price2.98+15.4% above fair

Omenizer detected 21 bookmakers pricing this bet above the no-vig fair at last refresh — this story covers one of them. Members see the full board, live.

LIVE SIGNAL · exactly as it appears on the member board
83
Omen Score
+13.8%
Edge vs sharp consensus
95
Confidence
3
Sharp sources
Pick: Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez @ 3.44 — best price at DraftKings
Fits 5 Playbook patterns — strongest has realized +9.1% on settled bets
This is 1 of the live signals on the board right now · see them all with a free account
A SAMPLE OF BOOKMAKERS ON THIS MATCH · right now — every price against the same no-vig fair
BookmakerSideOddsVs fair
DraftKingsRodrigo Pacheco Mendez3.44+13.8%
Unibet (Australia)Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez3.25+7.5%
NorthStar BetsRodrigo Pacheco Mendez3.25+7.5%
betPARXRodrigo Pacheco Mendez3.25+7.5%
Bally BetRodrigo Pacheco Mendez3.25+7.5%
TABtouchRodrigo Pacheco Mendez3.25+7.5%
ProlineRodrigo Pacheco Mendez3.25+7.5%
Hard Rock (Florida)Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez3.25+7.5%
Hard RockRodrigo Pacheco Mendez3.25+7.5%
Hard Rock (Illinois)Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez3.25+7.5%
Play EagleRodrigo Pacheco Mendez3.25+7.5%
LeoVegasRodrigo Pacheco Mendez3.25+7.5%
UnibetRodrigo Pacheco Mendez3.25+7.5%
CasumoRodrigo Pacheco Mendez3.25+7.5%
Desert DiamondRodrigo Pacheco Mendez3.25+7.5%
SugarHouseRodrigo Pacheco Mendez3.25+7.5%
TwinSpiresRodrigo Pacheco Mendez3.25+7.5%
Four WindsRodrigo Pacheco Mendez3.25+7.5%
BetRiversRodrigo Pacheco Mendez3.25+7.5%
BodogRodrigo Pacheco Mendez3.10+2.5%

Margins and best-price rates for every book we track

The moneyline for Denis Shapovalov vs Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez (ATP World Tour) has fractured across sportsbooks with 4 hours until play begins. DraftKings is trading one side at decimal odds of 3.44—a price that sits 15.4% above where independent sharp operators have anchored fair value. The mispricing is live now, still accessible to bettors as this page publishes.

The DraftKings quote has drifted 2.4 standard deviations from the consensus cluster—a distance that rules out routine market noise and points instead to a genuine misprice.

Three independent sharp sources converge on the consensus baseline, meaning the fair line reflects distributed professional judgment rather than any single book's isolated view.

Our Playbook flags 5 historical patterns that align with this signal structure. The most profitable has returned +9.1% ROI across its settled bets.

Tennis moneylines in this odds range have documented track record: 2342 settled bets in this market segment have returned +6.8% ROI in our historical sample.

Pricing gaps this wide rarely persist through service. Comparable mispricings in tennis have historically closed within roughly 11 hours as sharp money reprices the line.

Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.

AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW · what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different, already-settled match PRO
Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Kristina Liutova · WTA Tour · Tennis — pick Kristina Liutova @ 3.10
81 Omen Score

This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal. The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed, so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked 🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).

Why this bet
+12.0%
Entry edge
+7.2%
Edge near close
+0.8%
Risk-adjusted edge
2.89
Fair price (no-vig)
3.65
Entry odds
Quality
95/100
Confidence
3
Sharp books
Prime pick
Class
Market state: Strong sharp consensus (3+ books) · priced from: Sharp price
Sizing
4.5%
Recommended stake
3.4%
Full Kelly (theoretical max)
EV by devig methodthe same price run through every de-margining method
+9.7%
Shin
+8.4%
Power
+12.0%
Additive
-5.4%
Worst case
+12.0%
Multiplicative
Insights
High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
BookmakerOddsVs fair
Bwin3.10+7.2%
Sportingbet3.10+7.2%
Sportsinteraction3.10+7.2%
Superbet3.05+5.5%
Sx.Bet3.03+4.8%
Tailgate Exchange3.03+4.8%
Matchbook3.01+4.1%
Betway3.00+3.7%
Casumo3.00+3.7%
Unibet3.00+3.7%
Proline3.00+3.7%
Betjack3.00+3.7%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
3.10 odds → 32% implied win probability
35%
Fair win probability
+4.1% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+7.4% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
Proven Playbook matchesconditions are members-only
early value + short odds 🔒 (Any) — +7.9% settled ROI on 41% winners
consensus fade + late entry 🔒 (Any) — +6.3% settled ROI on 43% winners
steam entry + home side 🔒 (Any) — +4.3% settled ROI on 42% winners
Past performance

Based on 441 bets exactly like this one over the last 60 days

+7.0% 🔒
Closing line value
+7.7% 🔒
Average return
+6.3% 🔒
Beat the closing line
39%
Win rate
Likely ROI range: +3.2% to +8.3% 🔒
No reliable edge either way: too close to break-even to call
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Jul 27, 12:51 UTC at 3.65 (+12.0% edge) → fair price at close 3.18 → closing-line value +2.4%
✅ Settled: WON · +2.65 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim (read this signal's full story). The live breakdown for Denis Shapovalov vs Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez is on the member board now · unlock with Pro
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Live market record · data refreshes with this page · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).