ATP World Tour · Tennis · Jul 30, 2026 01:00 UTC · avg book margin 5.3%
Cerundolo–Boyer moneyline at Marca Apuestas trades 7.6% soft to sharp consensus, 15 hours out
Omenizer detected 56 bookmakers pricing this bet above the no-vig fair at last refresh — this story covers one of them. Members see the full board, live.
LIVE SIGNAL · exactly as it appears on the member board
82
Omen Score
+7.6%
Edge vs sharp consensus
95
Confidence
3
Sharp sources
Pick: Tristan Boyer
@ 3.64 — best price at Marca Apuestas
Fits 3 Playbook patterns — strongest has realized +8.7% on settled bets
With 15 hours until Francisco Cerundolo meets Tristan Boyer on the ATP World Tour, a pricing split has opened in the moneyline market. Marca Apuestas is quoting decimal odds of 3.64 on one outcome—a level that sits 7.6% above where independent sharp operators have settled the fair line. The mispricing is active now; bettors have a window to capture it before the gap closes.
Three independent sharp sources have aligned on the consensus fair value, so this baseline reflects distributed professional judgment rather than any single operator's internal model.
Our Playbook identifies 3 historical patterns that map to this signal type, with the most consistent variant posting +8.7% ROI on settled bets.
Tennis moneylines in this odds band carry a documented record: 2291 settled bets in this exact market segment have generated +6.2% ROI across our tracking history.
Mispricings this wide tend not to survive service time. Tennis moneyline edges comparable to this one have historically compressed within roughly 11 hours as sharp capital reprices the gap.
Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.
AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW
· what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different,
already-settled matchPRO
Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Kristina Liutova
· WTA Tour · Tennis — pick Kristina Liutova
@ 3.10
81Omen Score
This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal.
The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed,
so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked
🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).
EV by devig methodthe same price run through every de-margining method
+9.7%
Shin
+8.4%
Power
+12.0%
Additive
-5.4%
Worst case
+12.0%
Multiplicative
Insights
High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
Bookmaker
Odds
Vs fair
Bwin
3.10
+7.2%
Sportingbet
3.10
+7.2%
Sportsinteraction
3.10
+7.2%
Superbet
3.05
+5.5%
Sx.Bet
3.03
+4.8%
Tailgate Exchange
3.03
+4.8%
Matchbook
3.01
+4.1%
Betway
3.00
+3.7%
Casumo
3.00
+3.7%
Unibet
3.00
+3.7%
Proline
3.00
+3.7%
Betjack
3.00
+3.7%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
3.10 odds → 32% implied win probability
35%
Fair win probability
+4.1% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+7.4% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
Proven Playbook matchesconditions are members-only
• early value + short odds 🔒 (Any) — +7.9% settled ROI on 41% winners
• consensus fade + late entry 🔒 (Any) — +6.3% settled ROI on 43% winners
• steam entry + home side 🔒 (Any) — +4.3% settled ROI on 42% winners
Past performance
Based on 441 bets exactly like this one over the last 60 days
+7.0% 🔒
Closing line value
+7.7% 🔒
Average return
+6.3% 🔒
Beat the closing line
39%
Win rate
Likely ROI range: +3.2% to +8.3% 🔒
No reliable edge either way: too close to break-even to call
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Jul 27, 12:51 UTC at 3.65 (+12.0% edge) → fair price at close 3.18 → closing-line value +2.4%
✅ Settled: WON · +2.65 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim
(read this signal's full story).
The live breakdown for Francisco Cerundolo vs Tristan Boyer
is on the member board now ·
unlock with Pro
Live market record · data refreshes with this page · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).