ATP Challenger Tour · Tennis · Jul 30, 2026 09:00 UTC · avg book margin 6.9%
Roncadelli–Gombos ATP Challenger moneyline: 15.9% soft at Betano, market repriced before serve—closing-line value outran the loss
This story covers a single signal — right now the member board has 649 live signals across 372 matches, found the same way.
The moneyline pricing between Franco Roncadelli and Norbert Gombos (ATP Challenger Tour) at Betano caught our system's attention before match time. Decimal odds of 2.42 sat 15.9% above the sharp consensus, signaling a possible edge. The signal published while the market remained liquid and bettors could act on it.
Match outcome: 0–2. The flagged position did not cash. Single matches distribute randomly around any true edge, so outcomes in both directions appear on this board.
Where edge becomes visible: by kickoff, the market itself had shifted in the direction of the flagged side—odds improved +8.2% from detection to close. That movement is closing-line value, the metric professionals rely on because price shifts carry real signal while match results carry mostly noise.
Tennis moneyline signals in this odds band have accumulated +7.2% ROI across 2423 resolved bets tracked on the board.
This analysis was generated by the same system that scans for mispricings each day before play begins—not after final scores arrive. The live board surfaces edges while the window to act still exists.
Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.
AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW
· what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different,
already-settled matchPRO
Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Kristina Liutova
· WTA Tour · Tennis — pick Kristina Liutova
@ 3.10
81Omen Score
This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal.
The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed,
so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked
🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).
EV by devig methodthe same price run through every de-margining method
+9.7%
Shin
+8.4%
Power
+12.0%
Additive
-5.4%
Worst case
+12.0%
Multiplicative
Insights
High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
Bookmaker
Odds
Vs fair
Bwin
3.10
+7.2%
Sportingbet
3.10
+7.2%
Sportsinteraction
3.10
+7.2%
Superbet
3.05
+5.5%
Sx.Bet
3.03
+4.8%
Tailgate Exchange
3.03
+4.8%
Matchbook
3.01
+4.1%
Betway
3.00
+3.7%
Casumo
3.00
+3.7%
Unibet
3.00
+3.7%
Proline
3.00
+3.7%
Betjack
3.00
+3.7%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
3.10 odds → 32% implied win probability
35%
Fair win probability
+4.1% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+7.4% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
Proven Playbook matchesconditions are members-only
• early value + short odds 🔒 (Any) — +7.9% settled ROI on 41% winners
• consensus fade + late entry 🔒 (Any) — +6.3% settled ROI on 43% winners
• steam entry + home side 🔒 (Any) — +4.3% settled ROI on 42% winners
Past performance
Based on 441 bets exactly like this one over the last 60 days
+7.0% 🔒
Closing line value
+7.7% 🔒
Average return
+6.3% 🔒
Beat the closing line
39%
Win rate
Likely ROI range: +3.2% to +8.3% 🔒
No reliable edge either way: too close to break-even to call
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Jul 27, 12:51 UTC at 3.65 (+12.0% edge) → fair price at close 3.18 → closing-line value +2.4%
✅ Settled: WON · +2.65 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim
(read this signal's full story).
The live breakdown for Franco Roncadelli vs Norbert Gombos
is on the member board now ·
unlock with Pro
Record settled · last updated Jul 31, 2026 06:23 UTC · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).