ITF Men · Tennis · Jul 30, 2026 11:00 UTC · avg book margin 8.3%

Ujvary–Waldner ITF moneyline: 10.9% soft at bwin tightened before serve—closing-line value showed the system caught the edge

Offered at bwin3.20Fair price2.89+10.9% above fair

Omenizer detected 9 bookmakers pricing this bet above the no-vig fair near close — this story covers one of them. Members see the full board, live.

Our detection system identified pricing slack in the Matthias Ujvary vs Niklas Waldner (ITF Men) moneyline market ahead of play. At bwin, decimal odds of 3.20 sat 10.9% above sharp consensus when the signal went live. The window to act remained open—bettors following the flag captured that price while the market stayed liquid.

The match ended 2–1. This particular flagged position lost. Individual contests behave like coin flips near any real edge, which is why we surface them all regardless of outcome.

What signals genuine value: by serve time, the market had shifted toward the flagged side itself—odds closed +11.0% more favorable than when detected. This repricing is closing-line value, the measure professionals track, because price motion contains information while final scores do not.

Across 2437 resolved bets in this category—ITF tennis moneyline, this odds tier—cumulative return stands at +7.0% ROI on the board.

The same engine surfaces these edges daily before play begins, scanning for mispricings in real time. The live board displays them while the market remains open, not after matches conclude.

Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.

AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW · what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different, already-settled match PRO
Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Kristina Liutova · WTA Tour · Tennis — pick Kristina Liutova @ 3.10
81 Omen Score

This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal. The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed, so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked 🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).

Why this bet
+12.0%
Entry edge
+7.2%
Edge near close
+0.8%
Risk-adjusted edge
2.89
Fair price (no-vig)
3.65
Entry odds
Quality
95/100
Confidence
3
Sharp books
Prime pick
Class
Market state: Strong sharp consensus (3+ books) · priced from: Sharp price
Sizing
4.5%
Recommended stake
3.4%
Full Kelly (theoretical max)
EV by devig methodthe same price run through every de-margining method
+9.7%
Shin
+8.4%
Power
+12.0%
Additive
-5.4%
Worst case
+12.0%
Multiplicative
Insights
High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
BookmakerOddsVs fair
Bwin3.10+7.2%
Sportingbet3.10+7.2%
Sportsinteraction3.10+7.2%
Superbet3.05+5.5%
Sx.Bet3.03+4.8%
Tailgate Exchange3.03+4.8%
Matchbook3.01+4.1%
Betway3.00+3.7%
Casumo3.00+3.7%
Unibet3.00+3.7%
Proline3.00+3.7%
Betjack3.00+3.7%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
3.10 odds → 32% implied win probability
35%
Fair win probability
+4.1% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+7.4% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
Proven Playbook matchesconditions are members-only
early value + short odds 🔒 (Any) — +7.9% settled ROI on 41% winners
consensus fade + late entry 🔒 (Any) — +6.3% settled ROI on 43% winners
steam entry + home side 🔒 (Any) — +4.3% settled ROI on 42% winners
Past performance

Based on 441 bets exactly like this one over the last 60 days

+7.0% 🔒
Closing line value
+7.7% 🔒
Average return
+6.3% 🔒
Beat the closing line
39%
Win rate
Likely ROI range: +3.2% to +8.3% 🔒
No reliable edge either way: too close to break-even to call
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Jul 27, 12:51 UTC at 3.65 (+12.0% edge) → fair price at close 3.18 → closing-line value +2.4%
✅ Settled: WON · +2.65 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim (read this signal's full story). The live breakdown for Matthias Ujvary vs Niklas Waldner is on the member board now · unlock with Pro
See the live board — free account

The strategies behind signals like this · More stories

Record settled · last updated Jul 31, 2026 13:22 UTC · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).