ATP World Tour · Tennis · Jul 31, 2026 02:10 UTC · avg book margin 5.5%
Shapovalov–Svrcina moneyline: BetNation inflates odds by 14.9% versus sharp markets, 16 hours to serve
Omenizer detected 9 bookmakers pricing this bet above the no-vig fair at last refresh — this story covers one of them. Members see the full board, live.
LIVE SIGNAL · exactly as it appears on the member board
85
Omen Score
+20.0%
Edge vs sharp consensus
95
Confidence
3
Sharp sources
Pick: Dalibor Svrcina
@ 3.30 — best price at BetNation
Fits 5 Playbook patterns — strongest has realized +9.1% on settled bets
With 16 hours left before Denis Shapovalov and Dalibor Svrcina take the court (ATP World Tour), BetNation is quoting decimal odds of 3.30 on one side of the moneyline—a price running 14.9% above the consensus fair value anchored by independent sharp operators. The discrepancy is active now, not historical.
The BetNation quote has drifted 4.1 standard deviations from where the broader market has clustered, a distance that eliminates ordinary variance and points to genuine misprice.
The consensus baseline draws from 3 independent sharp sources operating in parallel, so the underlying fair value reflects distributed professional judgment rather than a single operator's read.
Our Playbook identifies 5 historical patterns that match this signal structure, with the strongest showing +9.1% ROI across its settled record.
Tennis moneylines at these odds have a documented record in our tracking: 2370 settled bets in this market segment have produced +7.0% ROI historically.
Pricing dislocations of this size tend not to survive to first serve. In comparable spots, the line has typically recompressed within approximately 11 hours as sharp action moves the market.
Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.
AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW
· what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different,
already-settled matchPRO
Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Kristina Liutova
· WTA Tour · Tennis — pick Kristina Liutova
@ 3.10
81Omen Score
This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal.
The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed,
so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked
🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).
EV by devig methodthe same price run through every de-margining method
+9.7%
Shin
+8.4%
Power
+12.0%
Additive
-5.4%
Worst case
+12.0%
Multiplicative
Insights
High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
Bookmaker
Odds
Vs fair
Bwin
3.10
+7.2%
Sportingbet
3.10
+7.2%
Sportsinteraction
3.10
+7.2%
Superbet
3.05
+5.5%
Sx.Bet
3.03
+4.8%
Tailgate Exchange
3.03
+4.8%
Matchbook
3.01
+4.1%
Betway
3.00
+3.7%
Casumo
3.00
+3.7%
Unibet
3.00
+3.7%
Proline
3.00
+3.7%
Betjack
3.00
+3.7%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
3.10 odds → 32% implied win probability
35%
Fair win probability
+4.1% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+7.4% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
Proven Playbook matchesconditions are members-only
• early value + short odds 🔒 (Any) — +7.9% settled ROI on 41% winners
• consensus fade + late entry 🔒 (Any) — +6.3% settled ROI on 43% winners
• steam entry + home side 🔒 (Any) — +4.3% settled ROI on 42% winners
Past performance
Based on 441 bets exactly like this one over the last 60 days
+7.0% 🔒
Closing line value
+7.7% 🔒
Average return
+6.3% 🔒
Beat the closing line
39%
Win rate
Likely ROI range: +3.2% to +8.3% 🔒
No reliable edge either way: too close to break-even to call
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Jul 27, 12:51 UTC at 3.65 (+12.0% edge) → fair price at close 3.18 → closing-line value +2.4%
✅ Settled: WON · +2.65 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim
(read this signal's full story).
The live breakdown for Denis Shapovalov vs Dalibor Svrcina
is on the member board now ·
unlock with Pro
Live market record · data refreshes with this page · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).