MLB · Baseball · Jul 31, 2026 01:40 UTC · avg book margin 4.3%
Padres–Giants moneyline at betjack: 6.1% overpriced with 6 hours until first pitch
Omenizer detected 21 bookmakers pricing this bet above the no-vig fair at last refresh — this story covers one of them. Members see the full board, live.
LIVE SIGNAL · exactly as it appears on the member board
77
Omen Score
+5.8%
Edge vs sharp consensus
95
Confidence
6
Sharp sources
Pick: San Diego Padres
@ 1.84 — best price at betjack
Fits 2 Playbook patterns — strongest has realized +15.9% on settled bets
At betjack, the moneyline for San Diego Padres vs San Francisco Giants (MLB) is trading at decimal odds of 1.84—a price that sits 6.1% above the sharp consensus with 6 hours remaining before first pitch. The mispricing is live as you read this, not a historical observation.
The outlier quote deviates 2.9 standard deviations from where the broader market has clustered, ruling out random movement and pointing to genuine misprice.
The consensus fair value rests on independent assessment from 6 separate sharp sources, so the edge reflects distributed professional judgment rather than one book's read.
Our Playbook identifies 2 historical patterns that match this setup, with the strongest variant having returned +15.9% ROI on its settled record.
Baseball moneyline bets in this odds range carry documented historical performance: 359 settled trades in our sample have posted +1.3% ROI overall.
Mispricings of this magnitude rarely persist through first pitch. In comparable baseball markets, these edges have typically corrected within approximately 9 hours as sharp action absorbs available value.
Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.
AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW
· what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different,
already-settled matchPRO
Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles
· MLB · Baseball — pick Boston Red Sox
@ 2.32
99Omen Score
This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal.
The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed,
so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked
🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).
EV by devig methodthe same price run through every de-margining method
+1.9%
Shin
+1.7%
Power
+2.5%
Additive
-4.9%
Worst case
+2.5%
Multiplicative
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
Bookmaker
Odds
Vs fair
FanDuel
2.32
+0.1%
Bovada
2.30
-0.8%
Espn-Bet
2.30
-0.8%
Betanysports
2.30
-0.8%
1xBet
2.29
-1.2%
Matchbook
2.26
-2.5%
BetUS
2.25
-2.9%
Gtbets
2.25
-2.9%
BetMGM
2.25
-2.9%
Coolbet
2.25
-2.9%
Sport888
2.25
-2.9%
Everygame
2.25
-2.9%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
2.32 odds → 43% implied win probability
43%
Fair win probability
+1.5% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+6.2% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
Proven Playbook matchesconditions are members-only
• steam entry + home side 🔒 (Baseball) — +26.5% settled ROI on 53% winners
• closing drift + liquid market 🔒 (Baseball) — +23.3% settled ROI on 57% winners
• early value + short odds 🔒 (Baseball) — +14.7% settled ROI on 48% winners
• consensus fade + late entry 🔒 (Any) — +7.1% settled ROI on 43% winners
Past performance
Based on 58 bets exactly like this one over the last 60 days
+1.2% 🔒
Closing line value
+2.7% 🔒
Average return
+2.0% 🔒
Beat the closing line
59%
Win rate
Likely ROI range: +7.2% to +3.0% 🔒
Statistically reliable winner: even the worst case is profitable
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Jul 20, 14:54 UTC at 2.50 (+2.5% edge) → fair price at close 2.32 → closing-line value +5.2%
✅ Settled: WON · +1.50 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim
(read this signal's full story).
The live breakdown for San Diego Padres vs San Francisco Giants
is on the member board now ·
unlock with Pro
Live market record · data refreshes with this page · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).