ITF Women · Tennis · Jul 31, 2026 08:00 UTC · avg book margin 8.6%

Mikaca–Luciano ITF final went 2–1, the flagged 10.2% edge didn't cash — but the repricing before serve confirmed the system caught it

Offered at DraftKings3.10Fair price2.81+10.2% above fair

Omenizer detected 9 bookmakers pricing this bet above the no-vig fair near close — this story covers one of them. Members see the full board, live.

The Sara Mikaca vs Lavinia Luciano (ITF Women) moneyline showed mispricings at DraftKings before play began. Our detection flagged decimal odds of 3.10, which priced 10.2% soft to sharp consensus. The signal ran while liquidity held, and bettors could take that price.

Match outcome: 2–1. The bet didn't land. Single matches function as near-coin-flips around legitimate edges, so we report all outcomes without filtering.

The metric that separates judgment from noise is closing-line value. Between detection and serve, the market moved +2.4% toward the flagged side—the kind of repricing that tells professionals the system spotted real value, since price motion carries information while final tallies scatter.

In this category—ITF Women moneyline, mid-range odds—flagged positions across 2466 resolved bets have produced +7.6% ROI.

The detection engine runs before every match, scanning for mispricings while markets remain open and trades are possible. This analysis was written live, not in hindsight. Check the board to find edges as they surface.

Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.

AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW · what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different, already-settled match PRO
Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Kristina Liutova · WTA Tour · Tennis — pick Kristina Liutova @ 3.10
81 Omen Score

This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal. The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed, so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked 🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).

Why this bet
+12.0%
Entry edge
+7.2%
Edge near close
+0.8%
Risk-adjusted edge
2.89
Fair price (no-vig)
3.65
Entry odds
Quality
95/100
Confidence
3
Sharp books
Prime pick
Class
Market state: Strong sharp consensus (3+ books) · priced from: Sharp price
Sizing
4.5%
Recommended stake
3.4%
Full Kelly (theoretical max)
EV by devig methodthe same price run through every de-margining method
+9.7%
Shin
+8.4%
Power
+12.0%
Additive
-5.4%
Worst case
+12.0%
Multiplicative
Insights
High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
BookmakerOddsVs fair
Bwin3.10+7.2%
Sportingbet3.10+7.2%
Sportsinteraction3.10+7.2%
Superbet3.05+5.5%
Sx.Bet3.03+4.8%
Tailgate Exchange3.03+4.8%
Matchbook3.01+4.1%
Betway3.00+3.7%
Casumo3.00+3.7%
Unibet3.00+3.7%
Proline3.00+3.7%
Betjack3.00+3.7%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
3.10 odds → 32% implied win probability
35%
Fair win probability
+4.1% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+7.4% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
Proven Playbook matchesconditions are members-only
early value + short odds 🔒 (Any) — +7.9% settled ROI on 41% winners
consensus fade + late entry 🔒 (Any) — +6.3% settled ROI on 43% winners
steam entry + home side 🔒 (Any) — +4.3% settled ROI on 42% winners
Past performance

Based on 441 bets exactly like this one over the last 60 days

+7.0% 🔒
Closing line value
+7.7% 🔒
Average return
+6.3% 🔒
Beat the closing line
39%
Win rate
Likely ROI range: +3.2% to +8.3% 🔒
No reliable edge either way: too close to break-even to call
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Jul 27, 12:51 UTC at 3.65 (+12.0% edge) → fair price at close 3.18 → closing-line value +2.4%
✅ Settled: WON · +2.65 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim (read this signal's full story). The live breakdown for Sara Mikaca vs Lavinia Luciano is on the member board now · unlock with Pro
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Record settled · last updated Aug 01, 2026 06:33 UTC · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).