MLB · Baseball · Jul 31, 2026 23:10 UTC · avg book margin 4.4%
Rays–White Sox moneyline: SportsBetting.ag quotes 6.4% above sharp consensus, 25 hours to first pitch
Omenizer detected 3 bookmakers pricing this bet above the no-vig fair at last refresh — this story covers one of them. Members see the full board, live.
LIVE SIGNAL · exactly as it appears on the member board
90
Omen Score
+3.7%
Edge vs sharp consensus
95
Confidence
2
Sharp sources
Pick: Chicago White Sox
@ 2.40 — best price at BetOnline
Fits 4 Playbook patterns — strongest has realized +19.5% on settled bets
The moneyline for Tampa Bay Rays vs Chicago White Sox (MLB) is fragmenting across sportsbooks with 25 hours remaining. SportsBetting.ag is currently pricing one outcome at decimal odds of 2.40 — a figure that sits 6.4% above where independent sharp operators have settled. The misprice is live now; this page reflects real-time market state.
That outlier price sits 2.9 standard deviations away from the broader market cluster — a statistical anomaly, not routine fluctuation.
The consensus baseline draws from 2 independent sharp sources, ensuring the fair line isn't a single operator's isolated view.
Our Playbook matches this signal shape to 4 historical patterns — the strongest has delivered +19.5% ROI on its settled bet record.
Baseball moneylines at mid-range odds have a tracked history: 559 settled bets of this type have returned +12.1% ROI, indicating edges in this segment carry documented staying power.
Mispricings at this scale compress before game time. Comparable edges in this market have historically tightened within approximately 9 hours.
Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.
AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW
· what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different,
already-settled matchPRO
Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles
· MLB · Baseball — pick Boston Red Sox
@ 2.32
99Omen Score
This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal.
The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed,
so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked
🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).
EV by devig methodthe same price run through every de-margining method
+1.9%
Shin
+1.7%
Power
+2.5%
Additive
-4.9%
Worst case
+2.5%
Multiplicative
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
Bookmaker
Odds
Vs fair
FanDuel
2.32
+0.1%
Bovada
2.30
-0.8%
Espn-Bet
2.30
-0.8%
Betanysports
2.30
-0.8%
1xBet
2.29
-1.2%
Matchbook
2.26
-2.5%
BetUS
2.25
-2.9%
Gtbets
2.25
-2.9%
BetMGM
2.25
-2.9%
Coolbet
2.25
-2.9%
Sport888
2.25
-2.9%
Everygame
2.25
-2.9%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
2.32 odds → 43% implied win probability
43%
Fair win probability
+1.5% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+6.2% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
Proven Playbook matchesconditions are members-only
• steam entry + home side 🔒 (Baseball) — +26.5% settled ROI on 53% winners
• closing drift + liquid market 🔒 (Baseball) — +23.3% settled ROI on 57% winners
• early value + short odds 🔒 (Baseball) — +14.7% settled ROI on 48% winners
• consensus fade + late entry 🔒 (Any) — +7.1% settled ROI on 43% winners
Past performance
Based on 58 bets exactly like this one over the last 60 days
+1.2% 🔒
Closing line value
+2.7% 🔒
Average return
+2.0% 🔒
Beat the closing line
59%
Win rate
Likely ROI range: +7.2% to +3.0% 🔒
Statistically reliable winner: even the worst case is profitable
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Jul 20, 14:54 UTC at 2.50 (+2.5% edge) → fair price at close 2.32 → closing-line value +5.2%
✅ Settled: WON · +1.50 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim
(read this signal's full story).
The live breakdown for Tampa Bay Rays vs Chicago White Sox
is on the member board now ·
unlock with Pro
Live market record · data refreshes with this page · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).