Rays–White Sox MLB moneyline: 6.4% soft at SportsBetting.ag, market tightened by kickoff—closing-line value proved the system caught it
Omenizer detected 19 bookmakers pricing this bet above the no-vig fair near close — this story covers one of them. Members see the full board, live.
Our detection system scanned the Tampa Bay Rays vs Chicago White Sox (MLB) moneyline and flagged pricing slack at SportsBetting.ag: decimal odds of 2.40 sat 6.4% above sharp consensus. The signal went live while the market remained liquid enough for action.
Match finished 1–6. The flagged position cashed, returning +1.40 units on a flat 1-unit stake.
What matters over time: by kickoff, the market had repriced toward the flagged side itself—closing-line value came in at +1.9% better than detection. CLV is the metric professionals rely on because price movement carries information while scorelines do not.
Across 563 settled bets in this category—baseball moneyline, mid-range odds tier—cumulative return stands at +13.0% ROI on the board.
This analysis runs daily before first pitch, scanning for edges in real time. The live board displays mispricings while liquidity exists, not after games conclude.
Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.
AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW
· what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different,
already-settled matchPRO
Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles
· MLB · Baseball — pick Boston Red Sox
@ 2.32
99Omen Score
This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal.
The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed,
so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked
🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).
EV by devig methodthe same price run through every de-margining method
+1.9%
Shin
+1.7%
Power
+2.5%
Additive
-4.9%
Worst case
+2.5%
Multiplicative
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
Bookmaker
Odds
Vs fair
FanDuel
2.32
+0.1%
Bovada
2.30
-0.8%
Espn-Bet
2.30
-0.8%
Betanysports
2.30
-0.8%
1xBet
2.29
-1.2%
Matchbook
2.26
-2.5%
BetUS
2.25
-2.9%
Gtbets
2.25
-2.9%
BetMGM
2.25
-2.9%
Coolbet
2.25
-2.9%
Sport888
2.25
-2.9%
Everygame
2.25
-2.9%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
2.32 odds → 43% implied win probability
43%
Fair win probability
+1.5% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+6.2% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
Proven Playbook matchesconditions are members-only
• steam entry + home side 🔒 (Baseball) — +26.5% settled ROI on 53% winners
• closing drift + liquid market 🔒 (Baseball) — +23.3% settled ROI on 57% winners
• early value + short odds 🔒 (Baseball) — +14.7% settled ROI on 48% winners
• consensus fade + late entry 🔒 (Any) — +7.1% settled ROI on 43% winners
Past performance
Based on 58 bets exactly like this one over the last 60 days
+1.2% 🔒
Closing line value
+2.7% 🔒
Average return
+2.0% 🔒
Beat the closing line
59%
Win rate
Likely ROI range: +7.2% to +3.0% 🔒
Statistically reliable winner: even the worst case is profitable
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Jul 20, 14:54 UTC at 2.50 (+2.5% edge) → fair price at close 2.32 → closing-line value +5.2%
✅ Settled: WON · +1.50 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim
(read this signal's full story).
The live breakdown for Tampa Bay Rays vs Chicago White Sox
is on the member board now ·
unlock with Pro
Record settled · last updated Aug 01, 2026 06:33 UTC · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).