ATP World Tour · Tennis · Jul 31, 2026 15:00 UTC · avg book margin 5.2%
Fritz–Michelsen moneyline at Betano: 5.9% overvalued versus sharp consensus, 4 hours to serve
What happened: Final score: 2–1. This one lost. A real edge is a long-run average, not a per-bet promise — we publish every outcome either way. The closing line moved against the signal (-14.6% CLV) — honest note: on this one, the market did not confirm the edge. For the record: the flagged price stayed live for about 32 hours after detection before the edge closed.
Omenizer detected 5 bookmakers pricing this bet above the no-vig fair near close — this story covers one of them. Members see the full board, live.
Betano is quoting decimal odds of 3.08 on one side of the Taylor Fritz vs Alex Michelsen moneyline (ATP World Tour), a price sitting 5.9% above where sharp operators have anchored their consensus. The window is live—4 hours remain until first serve, and the edge exists now, not in retrospect.
That quote has drifted 3.6 standard deviations from the rest of the market's clustering. A separation this wide signals genuine misprice, not ordinary volatility.
The fair-value baseline comes from 3 independent sharp sources operating in parallel. This isn't one operator's opinion—it's distributed professional agreement.
Our Playbook flags 5 historical patterns matching this setup. The most profitable has delivered +9.4% ROI across its settled bets.
Tennis moneylines at mid-range odds in this market segment have a track record: 2427 settled bets show +7.1% ROI over time. This edge belongs to a category with proven repeatability.
Mispricings at this scale seldom survive to first serve. Historical data suggests comparable edges typically close within about 10 hours as sharp money absorbs the available value.
Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.
AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW
· what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different,
already-settled matchPRO
Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Kristina Liutova
· WTA Tour · Tennis — pick Kristina Liutova
@ 3.10
81Omen Score
This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal.
The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed,
so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked
🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).
EV by devig methodthe same price run through every de-margining method
+9.7%
Shin
+8.4%
Power
+12.0%
Additive
-5.4%
Worst case
+12.0%
Multiplicative
Insights
High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
Bookmaker
Odds
Vs fair
Bwin
3.10
+7.2%
Sportingbet
3.10
+7.2%
Sportsinteraction
3.10
+7.2%
Superbet
3.05
+5.5%
Sx.Bet
3.03
+4.8%
Tailgate Exchange
3.03
+4.8%
Matchbook
3.01
+4.1%
Betway
3.00
+3.7%
Casumo
3.00
+3.7%
Unibet
3.00
+3.7%
Proline
3.00
+3.7%
Betjack
3.00
+3.7%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
3.10 odds → 32% implied win probability
35%
Fair win probability
+4.1% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+7.4% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
Proven Playbook matchesconditions are members-only
• early value + short odds 🔒 (Any) — +7.9% settled ROI on 41% winners
• consensus fade + late entry 🔒 (Any) — +6.3% settled ROI on 43% winners
• steam entry + home side 🔒 (Any) — +4.3% settled ROI on 42% winners
Past performance
Based on 441 bets exactly like this one over the last 60 days
+7.0% 🔒
Closing line value
+7.7% 🔒
Average return
+6.3% 🔒
Beat the closing line
39%
Win rate
Likely ROI range: +3.2% to +8.3% 🔒
No reliable edge either way: too close to break-even to call
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Jul 27, 12:51 UTC at 3.65 (+12.0% edge) → fair price at close 3.18 → closing-line value +2.4%
✅ Settled: WON · +2.65 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim
(read this signal's full story).
The live breakdown for Taylor Fritz vs Alex Michelsen
is on the member board now ·
unlock with Pro
Record settled · last updated Jul 31, 2026 23:02 UTC · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).