Ecuadorian Serie A · Soccer · Aug 01, 2026 14:00 -05 · avg book margin 8.8%

Manta–Mushuc Runa draw-no-bet: espn-bet quoting 5.4% soft to the field, 6 hours to kickoff

Offered at espn-bet2.10Fair price1.99+5.4% above fair

This story covers a single signal — right now the member board has 662 live signals across 330 matches, found the same way.

LIVE SIGNAL · exactly as it appears on the member board
79
Omen Score
+5.0%
Edge vs sharp consensus
20
Confidence
1
Sharp sources
Pick: Manta @ 2.10 — best price at espn-bet
Fits 1 Playbook pattern — strongest has realized +6.9% on settled bets
This is 1 of the live signals on the board right now · see them all with a free account
A SAMPLE OF BOOKMAKERS ON THIS MATCH · right now — every price against the same no-vig fair
BookmakerSideOddsVs fair
ESPN BETManta3.00+4.0%
UnibetDraw3.30-0.1%
Four WindsDraw3.25-1.6%
SugarHouseDraw3.25-1.6%
Desert DiamondDraw3.25-1.6%
BetRiversDraw3.25-1.6%
TwinSpiresDraw3.25-1.6%
RushBetDraw3.25-1.6%
Sportsbetting.agManta2.80-2.9%
BetOnlineManta2.80-2.9%
BetDEXManta2.80-2.9%
BetAmapolaManta2.80-2.9%
ESPN BETDraw3.20-3.1%
Betfair Exchange (Australia)Mushuc Runa2.75-3.6%
Betfair ExchangeMushuc Runa2.75-3.6%
BetDEXMushuc Runa2.73-4.3%
CoolbetDraw3.15-4.6%
bet105Mushuc Runa2.72-4.6%
bet105Draw3.15-4.6%
bet105Manta2.75-4.6%

Margins and best-price rates for every book we track

As Manta takes on Mushuc Runa in Ecuador's top flight, espn-bet's draw-no-bet quote sits noticeably apart from where the broader market has landed. At decimal odds of 2.10, one outcome is trading 5.4% above the sharp consensus—a live dislocation with roughly 6 hours before the whistle, while the market remains fluid.

The espn-bet price has drifted 3.4 standard deviations from the cluster of competing bets, placing it well beyond the threshold of routine daily movement.

Our historical catalogue flags 1 pattern match for this scenario, with the strongest variant returning +6.9% ROI on its closed wagers.

Mispricings in draw-no-bet markets tend to erode before the teams leave the tunnel. Comparable edges have historically compressed within roughly 31 hours of capture.

Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.

AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW · what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different, already-settled match PRO
Mushuc Runa vs Orense SC · Ecuadorian Serie A · Soccer — pick Mushuc Runa @ 1.93
99 Omen Score

This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal. The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed, so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked 🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).

Why this bet
+5.0%
Entry edge
+2.0%
Edge near close
+0.3%
Risk-adjusted edge
1.89
Fair price (no-vig)
2.10
Entry odds
Quality
95/100
Confidence
5
Sharp books
Prime pick
Class
Market state: Strong sharp consensus (3+ books) · priced from: Sharp price
Sizing
4.5%
Recommended stake
2.2%
Full Kelly (theoretical max)
EV by devig methodthe same price run through every de-margining method
+5.0%
Shin
+5.0%
Power
+5.0%
Additive
-3.1%
Worst case
+5.0%
Multiplicative
Insights
High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
BookmakerOddsVs fair
Bodog1.93+2.0%
Bovada1.93+2.0%
Heritage1.92+1.6%
Superbet1.92+1.6%
Betfair Exchange1.92+1.6%
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.92+1.6%
Betano1.91+1.1%
Betamapola1.91+1.1%
Fliff1.87-1.0%
Sportzino1.83-2.9%
BetDEX1.81-4.0%
Bet1051.80-4.7%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
1.93 odds → 52% implied win probability
53%
Fair win probability
+5.1% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+6.4% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
Proven Playbook matchesconditions are members-only
steam entry + home side 🔒 (Soccer) — +7.9% settled ROI on 40% winners
closing drift + liquid market 🔒 (Any) — +7.1% settled ROI on 43% winners
early value + short odds 🔒 (Any) — +4.7% settled ROI on 41% winners
consensus fade + late entry 🔒 (Any) — +4.1% settled ROI on 38% winners
Past performance

Based on 102 bets exactly like this one over the last 60 days

+7.9% 🔒
Closing line value
+8.6% 🔒
Average return
+3.6% 🔒
Beat the closing line
84%
Win rate
Likely ROI range: +3.1% to +4.4% 🔒
Statistically reliable winner: even the worst case is profitable
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Jul 20, 14:35 UTC at 2.10 (+5.0% edge) → fair price at close 1.90 → closing-line value +5.2%
✅ Settled: WON · +1.10 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim (read this signal's full story). The live breakdown for Manta vs Mushuc Runa is on the member board now · unlock with Pro
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Live market record · data refreshes with this page · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).