Ecuadorian Serie A · Soccer · Aug 01, 2026 14:00 -05 · avg book margin 8.8%
MantavsMushuc Runa
Draw-no-bet: espn-bet quoting 5.4% soft to the field, 6 hours to kickoff
What happened: Final score: 1–2. This one lost. A real edge is a long-run average, not a per-bet promise — we publish every outcome either way. The closing line moved against the signal (-33.0% CLV) — honest note: on this one, the market did not confirm the edge. For the record: the flagged price stayed live for about 6 hours after detection before the edge closed.
This story covers a single signal — right now the member board has 728 live signals across 310 matches, found the same way.
The setup — the analysis as published at detection, written 6.1 hours before start and frozen for the record. The market it describes has since closed; the outcome is above.
As Manta takes on Mushuc Runa in Ecuador's top flight, espn-bet's draw-no-bet quote sits noticeably apart from where the broader market has landed. At decimal odds of 2.10, one outcome is trading 5.4% above the sharp consensus—a live dislocation with roughly 6 hours before the whistle, while the market remains fluid.
The espn-bet price has drifted 3.4 standard deviations from the cluster of competing bets, placing it well beyond the threshold of routine daily movement.
Our historical catalogue flags 1 pattern match for this scenario, with the strongest variant returning +6.9% ROI on its closed wagers.
Mispricings in draw-no-bet markets tend to erode before the teams leave the tunnel. Comparable edges have historically compressed within roughly 31 hours of capture.
Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.
AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW
· what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different,
already-settled matchPRO
Fenerbahçe vs Sturm Graz
· UEFA Champions League · Soccer — flagged side Fenerbahçe
@ 1.98
99Omen Score
This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal.
The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed,
so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked
🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).
Record settled · last updated Aug 01, 2026 21:12 UTC · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).