WNBA · Basketball · Aug 02, 2026 13:00 EDT · avg book margin 6.9%
Minnesota LynxvsIndiana Fever
STN Sports' Asian handicap quote on Lynx–Fever sits 6.5% soft to sharp consensus, 4 hours before tip
What happened: Final score: 108–100. The edge paid: the flagged side won, returning +1.13 units on a flat 1-unit stake. The market agreed with the signal: the price closed +0.4% better than where the edge was flagged (positive closing-line value — the strongest sign the edge was real). For the record: the flagged price stayed live for about 4 hours after detection before the edge closed.
This story covers a single signal — right now the member board has 617 live signals across 302 matches, found the same way.
The setup — the analysis as published at detection, written 3.6 hours before start and frozen for the record. The market it describes has since closed; the outcome is above.
STN Sports is quoting the Asian handicap for Minnesota Lynx vs Indiana Fever (WNBA) at decimal odds of 2.13—a price that runs 6.5% above where independent sharp operators have clustered, with 4 hours until tip-off. The gap remains measurable and live as this page renders; the market has not yet compressed.
That quote has drifted 3.8 standard deviations from the sharp consensus. An amplitude of that size transcends ordinary daily noise and signals genuine mispricing across the board.
The consensus reflects convergent pricing from 2 independent sharp sources, so fair value here rests on overlapping professional judgment rather than any single operator's assessment.
Our Playbook identifies 3 historically profitable patterns that align with this signal. The highest-conviction variant has posted +7.1% ROI on its settled bets.
Basketball Asian handicap trades in this odds range have delivered durability: 31 settled bets in this exact segment returned +0.4% cumulative ROI over time.
Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.
AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW
· what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different,
already-settled matchPRO
Phoenix Mercury vs Golden State Valkyries
· WNBA · Basketball — pick Phoenix Mercury
@ 2.95
78Omen Score
This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal.
The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed,
so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked
🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).
EV by devig methodthe same price run through every de-margining method
+4.8%
Shin
+3.7%
Power
+6.9%
Additive
-12.0%
Worst case
+6.9%
Multiplicative
Insights
High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
Bookmaker
Odds
Vs fair
Sportzino
2.95
+20.3%
CampoBet
2.95
+20.3%
Jackpot-Bet
2.95
+20.3%
Ninja Casino
2.95
+20.3%
Lottoland
2.85
+16.2%
Neds
2.75
+12.1%
Betano
2.75
+12.1%
Betway
2.75
+12.1%
Boomers
2.75
+12.1%
Ladbrokes AU
2.75
+12.1%
Bwin
2.70
+10.1%
BetMGM
2.70
+10.1%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
2.95 odds → 34% implied win probability
41%
Fair win probability
+5.3% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+1.1% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
Proven Playbook matchesconditions are members-only
• steam entry + home side 🔒 (Any) — +7.7% settled ROI on 40% winners
• closing drift + liquid market 🔒 (Any) — +4.7% settled ROI on 42% winners
Past performance
Based on 37 bets exactly like this one over the last 60 days
+1.1% 🔒
Closing line value
+8.7% 🔒
Average return
+1.4% 🔒
Beat the closing line
51%
Win rate
Likely ROI range: +7.9% to +2.7% 🔒
No reliable edge either way: too close to break-even to call
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Jul 29, 00:30 UTC at 3.22 (+5.7% edge) → fair price at close 2.68 → closing-line value +13.7%
✅ Settled: WON · +2.22 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim
(read this signal's full story).
The live breakdown for Minnesota Lynx vs Indiana Fever
is on the member board now ·
unlock with Pro
Record settled · last updated Aug 02, 2026 19:35 UTC · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).