Sparta Prague 2–1 Lyon: at detection, the draw-no-bet was 8.8% soft — closing-line value confirmed the edge
Omenizer detected 38 bookmakers pricing this bet above the no-vig fair near close — this story covers one of them. Members see the full board, live.
The setup — the analysis as published at detection, written before the game and frozen for the record. The market it describes has since closed; the outcome is above.
Hours before Sparta Prague faced Lyon in the UEFA Champions League, our detection engine surfaced a misprice in the draw-no-bet market at PointsBet AU: decimal odds of 2.85 sat 8.8% above the sharp consensus. The inefficiency had enough depth for a bet to execute at detection.
The match ended 2–1 to Sparta Prague. A single unit wagered at the flagged price returned +1.85 units.
Outcome alone does not measure bet quality — closing-line value does. Between detection and the start of play, the market repriced +20.2% toward the flagged side. That shift encodes whether the original position was sound, independent of the scoreline. Professionals use CLV to evaluate play, because individual results are noise.
This analysis was generated before kickoff by the system that surfaces mispricings daily. The live board surfaces edges while they remain liquid; once play starts, the window closes.
Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.
AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW
· what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different,
already-settled matchPRO
Fenerbahce vs Sturm Graz
· UEFA Champions League · Soccer — flagged side Fenerbahce
@ 1.98
99Omen Score
This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal.
The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed,
so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked
🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).
High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
Bookmaker
Odds
Vs fair
Matchbook
2.10
+9.2%
BetOnline
1.98
+2.9%
SportsBetting.ag
1.98
+2.9%
Betr AU
1.93
+0.1%
BC.Game
1.91
-0.8%
Betplay
1.91
-0.8%
Rivalry
1.91
-0.8%
Betwhale
1.91
-0.8%
Jazz Sports
1.91
-0.8%
Coolbet
1.90
-1.2%
Sx.Bet
1.88
-2.4%
Betmania
1.88
-2.4%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
1.98 odds → 50% implied win probability
52%
Fair win probability
+3.9% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+4.8% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
Proven Playbook matchesconditions are members-only
• early value + short odds 🔒 (Any) — +6.4% settled ROI on 47% winners
• consensus fade + late entry 🔒 (Any) — +6.1% settled ROI on 39% winners
• steam entry + home side 🔒 (Any) — +4.2% settled ROI on 42% winners
Past performance
Based on 82 bets exactly like this one over the last 60 days
+4.9% 🔒
Closing line value
+4.1% 🔒
Average return
+8.6% 🔒
Beat the closing line
60%
Win rate
Likely ROI range: +6.2% to +5.1% 🔒
Statistically reliable winner: even the worst case is profitable
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Aug 02, 03:51 UTC at 2.45 (+5.3% edge) → fair price at close 1.91 → closing-line value +21.6%
✅ Settled: WON · +1.45 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim
(read this signal's full story).
The live breakdown for Sparta Prague vs Lyon
is on the member board now ·
unlock with Pro
Record settled · last updated Aug 06, 2026 07:02 UTC · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).