WNBA · Basketball · Aug 05, 2026 19:00 EDT · avg book margin 5.1%
Atlanta DreamvsPhoenix Mercury
Phoenix Mercury at Atlanta Dream: sportingbet is overpricing the moneyline by 2.2% versus sharp consensus, 21 hours before tip-off
What happened: Final score: 96–82. This one lost. A real edge is a long-run average, not a per-bet promise — we publish every outcome either way. The closing line moved against the signal (-4.3% CLV) — honest note: on this one, the market did not confirm the edge. For the record: the flagged price stayed live for about 43 hours after detection before the edge closed.
Omenizer detected 15 bookmakers pricing this bet above the no-vig fair near close — this story covers one of them. Members see the full board, live.
The setup — the analysis as published at detection, written 21 hours before start and frozen for the record. The market it describes has since closed; the outcome is above.
At detection — 21 hours before Phoenix Mercury at Atlanta Dream (WNBA) — the moneyline market shows a split between retail and professional pricing. sportingbet is quoting decimal odds of 2.85 on one side, a 2.2% overquote relative to the consensus line set by independent sharp operators. The dislocation remains unresolved at this moment.
The outlier sits 2.0 standard deviations beyond the cluster where other books have settled — a statistical gap that signals real disagreement, not routine variance.
That consensus emerges from 3 independent sharp sources, meaning the theoretical fair value behind this edge rests on professional alignment rather than a single operator's view.
Our Playbook identifies 6 historical patterns that match this signal structure. The highest-performing precedent has delivered +11.7% ROI across settled bets.
This exact market slice — WNBA moneyline at mid-range odds — has accumulated +6.9% cumulative ROI across 1420 settled bets tracked on our board. Comparable signals have paid before.
Dislocations of this magnitude have typically compressed in roughly 23 hours as sharp money and retail correction push the market toward consensus. The window does not extend to tip-off.
Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.
AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW
· what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different,
already-settled matchPRO
Chicago Sky vs Los Angeles Sparks
· WNBA · Basketball — flagged side Chicago Sky
@ 2.08
92Omen Score
This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal.
The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed,
so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked
🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).
High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
Bookmaker
Odds
Vs fair
BC.Game
2.08
+3.5%
Betplay
2.08
+3.5%
Rivalry
2.08
+3.5%
Betwhale
2.08
+3.5%
Heritage
2.04
+1.6%
Betway
2.00
-0.4%
FanDuel
2.00
-0.4%
Bet99
1.95
-2.8%
Espn-Bet
1.95
-2.8%
theScore
1.95
-2.8%
DraftKings
1.95
-2.8%
BetRight
1.94
-3.3%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
2.08 odds → 48% implied win probability
50%
Fair win probability
+7.1% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+3.0% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
Proven Playbook matchesconditions are members-only
• early value + short odds 🔒 (Any) — +15.0% settled ROI on 50% winners
• consensus fade + late entry 🔒 (Any) — +7.2% settled ROI on 43% winners
• steam entry + home side 🔒 (Any) — +7.2% settled ROI on 40% winners
• closing drift + liquid market 🔒 (Any) — +4.8% settled ROI on 42% winners
Past performance
Based on 42 same market & conditions over the last 60 days
+4.9% 🔒
Closing line value
+1.1% 🔒
Average return
+6.0% 🔒
Beat the closing line
43%
Win rate
Likely ROI range: +3.7% to +7.8% 🔒
No reliable edge either way: too close to break-even to call
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Aug 05, 03:20 UTC at 2.12 (+2.9% edge) → fair price at close 2.02 → closing-line value +1.8%
✅ Settled: WON · +1.12 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim
(read this signal's full story).
The live breakdown for Atlanta Dream vs Phoenix Mercury
is on the member board now ·
unlock with Pro
Record settled · last updated Aug 06, 2026 01:12 UTC · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).