WNBA · Basketball · Aug 07, 2026 19:30 EDT · avg book margin 5.8%
Connecticut SunvsPhoenix Mercury
1xBet quotes moneyline at 2.95, sitting 4.4% above sharp consensus 41 hours before tip-off
Omenizer detected 2 bookmakers pricing this bet above the no-vig fair at last refresh — this story covers one of them. Members see the full board, live.
A SAMPLE OF BOOKMAKERS ON THIS MATCH · right now — every price against the same no-vig fair
At detection—41 hours before Connecticut Sun vs Phoenix Mercury (WNBA)—a moneyline pricing gap has opened between 1xBet and the sharp consensus. The bookmaker's decimal odds of 2.95 on one side sit 4.4% higher than where independent professionals have anchored their estimate. The dislocation remains unresolved.
That 1xBet quote lands 3.1 standard deviations away from the professional cluster—a measurable statistical outlier reflecting substantive disagreement rather than routine market movement.
Our Playbook maps this configuration to 4 historical patterns in similar spots. The highest-ROI variant among them has returned +11.8% on its settled record.
Basketball moneyline edges at mid-range odds have accumulated +6.8% ROI across 1422 closed bets in our tracked history. Pricing dislocations matching this signal have paid before.
Pricing gaps of this magnitude have typically compressed in about 23 hours as the market drifts toward consensus and the opening narrows.
Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.
AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW
· what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different,
already-settled matchPRO
Chicago Sky vs Los Angeles Sparks
· WNBA · Basketball — flagged side Chicago Sky
@ 2.08
92Omen Score
This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal.
The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed,
so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked
🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).
High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
Bookmaker
Odds
Vs fair
BC.Game
2.08
+3.5%
Betplay
2.08
+3.5%
Rivalry
2.08
+3.5%
Betwhale
2.08
+3.5%
Heritage
2.04
+1.6%
Betway
2.00
-0.4%
FanDuel
2.00
-0.4%
Bet99
1.95
-2.8%
Espn-Bet
1.95
-2.8%
theScore
1.95
-2.8%
DraftKings
1.95
-2.8%
BetRight
1.94
-3.3%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
2.08 odds → 48% implied win probability
50%
Fair win probability
+7.1% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+3.0% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
Proven Playbook matchesconditions are members-only
• early value + short odds 🔒 (Any) — +15.0% settled ROI on 50% winners
• consensus fade + late entry 🔒 (Any) — +7.2% settled ROI on 43% winners
• steam entry + home side 🔒 (Any) — +7.2% settled ROI on 40% winners
• closing drift + liquid market 🔒 (Any) — +4.8% settled ROI on 42% winners
Past performance
Based on 42 same market & conditions over the last 60 days
+4.9% 🔒
Closing line value
+1.1% 🔒
Average return
+6.0% 🔒
Beat the closing line
43%
Win rate
Likely ROI range: +3.7% to +7.8% 🔒
No reliable edge either way: too close to break-even to call
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Aug 05, 03:20 UTC at 2.12 (+2.9% edge) → fair price at close 2.02 → closing-line value +1.8%
✅ Settled: WON · +1.12 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim
(read this signal's full story).
The live breakdown for Connecticut Sun vs Phoenix Mercury
is on the member board now ·
unlock with Pro
Live market record · data refreshes with this page · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).