NCAA Division 1 · American Football · Aug 27, 2026 23:00 UTC · avg book margin 4.8%

LindenwoodvsCharleston Southern

The 7.6% pre-match edge lost the coin flip — but the market moved toward it before kickoff, which is the part that repeats

How it ended, price by price: Lindenwood vs Charleston Southern — full match recap with closing odds

Offered at SABA Sports4.03Fair price3.75+7.6% above fair

This story covers a single signal — right now the member board has 490 live signals across 184 matches, found the same way.

The setup — the analysis as published at detection, written before the game and frozen for the record. The market it describes has since closed; the outcome is above.

Before Lindenwood vs Charleston Southern (NCAA Division 1) kicked off, our board flagged the moneyline market: one price sat 7.6% above the sharp consensus at SABA Sports, at decimal odds of 4.03. Bettors following the signal took that price while it lasted.

Final score: 20–17. The bet lost — single results are coin flips around the edge, and we publish them either way.

The part that matters long-run: by kickoff the market had moved toward the flagged side — the price closed +4.3% better than where we caught it (positive closing-line value). CLV is how professionals judge a bet, because results are noisy and closing prices are not.

This page was written by the same engine that flags edges like this every day, before kickoff — not after. The live board shows them while the window is still open.

Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.

AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW · what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different, already-settled match PRO
Winnipeg Blue Bombers vs Montreal Alouettes · CFL · American Football — flagged side Winnipeg Blue Bombers @ 3.80
88 Omen Score

This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal. The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed, so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked 🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).

Why this bet
+4.5%
Entry edge
+3.2%
Edge near close
+1.0%
Risk-adjusted edge
3.68
Fair price (no-vig)
3.90
Entry odds
Quality
95/100
Confidence
3
Sharp books
Prime signal
Class
Market state: Strong sharp consensus (3+ books) · priced from: Sharp price
Sizing
1.23%
Recommended stake
1.1%
Full Kelly (theoretical max)
EV by devig methodthe same price run through every de-margining method
+1.5%
Shin
-0.1%
Power
+4.5%
Additive
+1.5%
Balanced
-14.9%
Worst case
+4.5%
Multiplicative
Insights
High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
BookmakerOddsVs fair
espn-bet3.80+3.2%
theScore3.80+3.2%
TABtouch3.75+1.9%
Betfair Exchange3.70+0.5%
4cx3.64-1.1%
bet1053.56-3.3%
Bodog3.55-3.6%
Betano3.55-3.6%
Bovada3.55-3.6%
Coolbet3.55-3.6%
FanDuel3.55-3.6%
PlayNow3.55-3.6%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
3.80 odds → 26% implied win probability
27%
Fair win probability
+3.7% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+3.4% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Aug 28, 22:51 UTC at 3.90 (+4.5% edge) → fair price at close 3.66 → closing-line value +2.0%
✅ Settled: WON · +2.90 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim (read this signal's full story). The live breakdown for Lindenwood vs Charleston Southern is on the member board now · unlock with Pro
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Record settled · last updated Aug 29, 2026 11:41 UTC · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).