ATP World Tour · Tennis · Aug 30, 2026 15:00 UTC

Roman SafiullinvsCarlos Alcaraz

CampoBet is paying 6.0% over the sharp consensus in the totals market, 12 hours before first serve

What happened: Final score: 12–18. The edge paid: the flagged side won, returning +0.93 units on a flat 1-unit stake. The market agreed with the signal: the price closed +0.0% better than where the edge was flagged (positive closing-line value — the strongest sign the edge was real). For the record: the flagged price stayed live for about 12 hours after detection before the edge closed.
Offered at CampoBet1.93Fair price1.82+6.0% above fair

Omenizer detected 10 bookmakers pricing this bet above the no-vig fair near close — this story covers one of them. Members see the full board, live.

The setup — the analysis as published at detection, written 12.3 hours before start and frozen for the record. The market it describes has since closed; the outcome is above.

12 hours before Roman Safiullin vs Carlos Alcaraz (ATP World Tour), bookmakers disagree about the totals market — and one side of that disagreement is currently priced 6.0% above the sharp consensus at CampoBet, at decimal odds of 1.93. This is a live edge, not a post-mortem: the window is open as this page is generated.

The spread of prices across books is unusually wide right now — when bookmakers can't agree, someone is wrong, and the sharp consensus says which side.

56 independent sharp sources price this market, so the fair line behind that edge isn't one book's opinion.

This signal fits 2 historically profitable patterns from our Playbook — the strongest has realized +15.9% on settled bets.

Similar bets have paid before: signals in this exact segment — tennis totals, fav-range odds — have returned +20.5% ROI across 74 settled bets tracked on our board.

Edges like this don't wait for first serve: in this market, they have typically held for about 2 hours before the price corrects.

Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.

AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW · what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different, already-settled match PRO
Jiri Lehecka vs Stefanos Tsitsipas · ATP World Tour · Tennis — flagged side Stefanos Tsitsipas @ 2.69
90 Omen Score

This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal. The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed, so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked 🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).

Why this bet
+6.0%
Entry edge
+5.1%
Edge near close
+0.5%
Risk-adjusted edge
2.56
Fair price (no-vig)
3.00
Entry odds
Quality
94/100
Confidence
3
Sharp books
Prime signal
Class
Market state: Strong sharp consensus (3+ books) · priced from: Sharp price
Sizing
0.97%
Recommended stake
3.0%
Full Kelly (theoretical max)
EV by devig methodthe same price run through every de-margining method
+4.7%
Shin
+4.1%
Power
+6.0%
Additive
+4.7%
Balanced
-5.4%
Worst case
+6.0%
Multiplicative
Insights
Price is 3.3σ from market consensus.High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
BookmakerOddsVs fair
Betano2.69+5.1%
bet1052.66+3.9%
SX.bet2.63+2.7%
Matchbook2.63+2.7%
Prophet X2.63+2.7%
Tailgate Exchange2.63+2.7%
STN Sports2.62+2.3%
Betfair Exchange2.62+2.3%
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.62+2.3%
4cx2.61+1.9%
Novig2.60+1.6%
Winpot2.60+1.6%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
2.69 odds → 37% implied win probability
39%
Fair win probability
+6.2% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+3.0% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Sep 03, 13:10 UTC at 3.00 (+6.0% edge) → fair price at close 2.63 → closing-line value +7.5%
✅ Settled: WON · +2.00 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim (read this signal's full story). The live breakdown for Roman Safiullin vs Carlos Alcaraz is on the member board now · unlock with Pro
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The strategies behind signals like this · More stories

Record settled · last updated Aug 31, 2026 20:11 UTC · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).