ATP World Tour · Tennis · Aug 30, 2026 17:20 UTC · avg book margin 5.2%
Thiago Agustin TirantevsAdrian Mannarino
1xBet is paying 7.9% over the sharp consensus in the moneyline market, 7 hours before first serve
What happened: Final score: 1–0. This one lost. A real edge is a long-run average, not a per-bet promise — we publish every outcome either way. The closing line moved against the signal (-5.2% CLV) — honest note: on this one, the market did not confirm the edge. For the record: the flagged price stayed live for about 7 hours after detection before the edge closed.
This story covers a single signal — right now the member board has 486 live signals across 183 matches, found the same way.
The setup — the analysis as published at detection, written 6.6 hours before start and frozen for the record. The market it describes has since closed; the outcome is above.
7 hours before Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Adrian Mannarino (ATP World Tour), bookmakers disagree about the moneyline market — and one side of that disagreement is currently priced 7.9% above the sharp consensus at 1xBet, at decimal odds of 3.62. This is a live edge, not a post-mortem: the window is open as this page is generated.
One price sits 4.4 standard deviations away from where the rest of the market has settled — a genuine outlier, not ordinary noise.
3 independent sharp sources price this market, so the fair line behind that edge isn't one book's opinion.
This signal fits 3 historically profitable patterns from our Playbook — the strongest has realized +11.6% on settled bets.
Similar bets have paid before: signals in this exact segment — tennis moneyline, mid-range odds — have returned +6.5% ROI across 3585 settled bets tracked on our board.
Edges like this don't wait for first serve: in this market, they have typically held for about 8 hours before the price corrects.
Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.
AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW
· what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different,
already-settled matchPRO
Jiri Lehecka vs Stefanos Tsitsipas
· ATP World Tour · Tennis — flagged side Stefanos Tsitsipas
@ 2.69
90Omen Score
This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal.
The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed,
so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked
🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).
EV by devig methodthe same price run through every de-margining method
+4.7%
Shin
+4.1%
Power
+6.0%
Additive
+4.7%
Balanced
-5.4%
Worst case
+6.0%
Multiplicative
Insights
Price is 3.3σ from market consensus.High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
Bookmaker
Odds
Vs fair
Betano
2.69
+5.1%
bet105
2.66
+3.9%
SX.bet
2.63
+2.7%
Matchbook
2.63
+2.7%
Prophet X
2.63
+2.7%
Tailgate Exchange
2.63
+2.7%
STN Sports
2.62
+2.3%
Betfair Exchange
2.62
+2.3%
Betfair Exchange (AU)
2.62
+2.3%
4cx
2.61
+1.9%
Novig
2.60
+1.6%
Winpot
2.60
+1.6%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
2.69 odds → 37% implied win probability
39%
Fair win probability
+6.2% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+3.0% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Sep 03, 13:10 UTC at 3.00 (+6.0% edge) → fair price at close 2.63 → closing-line value +7.5%
✅ Settled: WON · +2.00 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim
(read this signal's full story).
The live breakdown for Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Adrian Mannarino
is on the member board now ·
unlock with Pro
Record settled · last updated Aug 30, 2026 21:32 UTC · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).