MLB · Baseball · Sep 04, 2026 18:40 EDT

Philadelphia PhilliesvsAtlanta Braves

1xBet is paying 2.0% over the sharp consensus in the totals market, 14 hours before first pitch

What happened: Final score: 2–5. This one lost. A real edge is a long-run average, not a per-bet promise — we publish every outcome either way. The closing line moved against the signal (-2.0% CLV) — honest note: on this one, the market did not confirm the edge. For the record: the flagged price stayed live for about 11 hours after detection before the edge closed.

How it ended, price by price: Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves — full match recap with closing odds

Offered at 1xBet2.15Fair price2.11+2.0% above fair

Omenizer detected 2 bookmakers pricing this bet above the no-vig fair near close — this story covers one of them. Members see the full board, live.

The setup — the analysis as published at detection, written 13.6 hours before start and frozen for the record. The market it describes has since closed; the outcome is above.

14 hours before Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves (MLB), bookmakers disagree about the totals market — and one side of that disagreement is currently priced 2.0% above the sharp consensus at 1xBet, at decimal odds of 2.15. This is a live edge, not a post-mortem: the window is open as this page is generated.

One price sits 4.4 standard deviations away from where the rest of the market has settled — a genuine outlier, not ordinary noise.

32 independent sharp sources price this market, so the fair line behind that edge isn't one book's opinion.

Edges like this don't wait for first pitch: in this market, they have typically held for about 19 hours before the price corrects.

Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.

AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW · what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different, already-settled match PRO
Cincinnati Reds vs St. Louis Cardinals · MLB · Baseball — flagged side Under 8.5 @ 2.15
79 Omen Score

This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal. The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed, so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked 🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).

Why this bet
+4.4%
Entry edge
+0.9%
Edge near close
+0.1%
Risk-adjusted edge
2.13
Fair price (no-vig)
2.25
Entry odds
Quality
80/100
Confidence
9
Sharp books
Prime signal
Class
Market state: Recreational consensus (no sharp anchor) · priced from: Market reference
Sizing
1.55%
Recommended stake
0.8%
Full Kelly (theoretical max)
Insights
Rec-book consensus only — no sharp anchor.High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
BookmakerOddsVs fair
Hard Rock2.15+0.9%
espn-bet2.10-1.4%
Hard Rock2.10-1.4%
1xBet2.08-2.3%
Matchbook2.08-2.3%
sport8882.05-3.8%
betparx1.96-7.9%
Bally Bet1.96-7.9%
BetRivers1.96-7.9%
PMU1.83-14.3%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
2.15 odds → 47% implied win probability
47%
Fair win probability
+4.9% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+8.0% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Aug 17, 18:51 UTC at 2.25 (+4.4% edge) → fair price at close 2.13 → closing-line value +1.1%
✅ Settled: WON · +1.25 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim (read this signal's full story). The live breakdown for Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves is on the member board now · unlock with Pro
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Record settled · last updated Sep 05, 2026 01:22 UTC · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).