ATP World Tour · Tennis · Sep 06, 2026 18:00 UTC

Tommy PaulvsCarlos Alcaraz

1xBet is paying 5.6% over the sharp consensus in the totals market, 5 hours before first serve

Offered at 1xBet2.00Fair price1.89+5.6% above fair

This story covers a single signal — right now the member board has 510 live signals across 189 matches, found the same way.

A SAMPLE OF BOOKMAKERS ON THIS MATCH · right now — every price against the same no-vig fair
BookmakerSideOddsVs fair
SX.betTommy Paul5.16+8.1%
novigTommy Paul5.13+7.5%
matchbookTommy Paul5.12+7.3%
prophet-xTommy Paul5.12+7.3%
4cxTommy Paul5.02+5.2%
tailgate exchangeTommy Paul5.00+4.8%
boomersTommy Paul5.00+4.8%
betmaniaTommy Paul5.00+4.8%
Betfair Exchange (Australia)Tommy Paul4.99+4.6%
betfair-exTommy Paul4.99+4.6%
sportsbetTommy Paul4.95+3.7%
fanduelTommy Paul4.90+2.7%
isnTommy Paul4.85+1.6%
betnowTommy Paul4.85+1.6%
betonlineTommy Paul4.85+1.6%
sportsbetting-agTommy Paul4.85+1.6%
betanoTommy Paul4.80+0.6%
theScoreTommy Paul4.80+0.6%
bet105Tommy Paul4.80+0.6%
underdog-predictionsTommy Paul4.76-0.3%

Margins and best-price rates for every book we track

5 hours before Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz (ATP World Tour), bookmakers disagree about the totals market — and one side of that disagreement is currently priced 5.6% above the sharp consensus at 1xBet, at decimal odds of 2.00. This is a live edge, not a post-mortem: the window is open as this page is generated.

The spread of prices across books is unusually wide right now — when bookmakers can't agree, someone is wrong, and the sharp consensus says which side.

64 independent sharp sources price this market, so the fair line behind that edge isn't one book's opinion.

This signal fits 2 historically profitable patterns from our Playbook — the strongest has realized +10.9% on settled bets.

Edges like this don't wait for first serve: in this market, they have typically held for about 2 hours before the price corrects.

Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.

AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW · what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different, already-settled match PRO
Jiri Lehecka vs Stefanos Tsitsipas · ATP World Tour · Tennis — flagged side Stefanos Tsitsipas @ 2.69
90 Omen Score

This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal. The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed, so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked 🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).

Why this bet
+6.0%
Entry edge
+5.1%
Edge near close
+0.5%
Risk-adjusted edge
2.56
Fair price (no-vig)
3.00
Entry odds
Quality
94/100
Confidence
3
Sharp books
Prime signal
Class
Market state: Strong sharp consensus (3+ books) · priced from: Sharp price
Sizing
0.97%
Recommended stake
3.0%
Full Kelly (theoretical max)
EV by devig methodthe same price run through every de-margining method
+4.7%
Shin
+4.1%
Power
+6.0%
Additive
+4.7%
Balanced
-5.4%
Worst case
+6.0%
Multiplicative
Insights
Price is 3.3σ from market consensus.High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
BookmakerOddsVs fair
Betano2.69+5.1%
bet1052.66+3.9%
SX.bet2.63+2.7%
Matchbook2.63+2.7%
Prophet X2.63+2.7%
Tailgate Exchange2.63+2.7%
STN Sports2.62+2.3%
Betfair Exchange2.62+2.3%
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.62+2.3%
4cx2.61+1.9%
Novig2.60+1.6%
Winpot2.60+1.6%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
2.69 odds → 37% implied win probability
39%
Fair win probability
+6.2% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+3.0% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Sep 03, 13:10 UTC at 3.00 (+6.0% edge) → fair price at close 2.63 → closing-line value +7.5%
✅ Settled: WON · +2.00 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim (read this signal's full story). The live breakdown for Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz is on the member board now · unlock with Pro
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The strategies behind signals like this · More stories

Live market record · data refreshes with this page · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).