FanDuel's draw-no-bet offer sits 5.1% rich to the sharp consensus, 4 hours before kickoff
What happened: Final score: 2–1. The edge paid: the flagged side won, returning +1.90 units on a flat 1-unit stake. The closing line moved against the signal (-3.5% CLV) — honest note: on this one, the market did not confirm the edge. For the record: the flagged price stayed live for about 13 hours after detection before the edge closed.
Omenizer detected 2 bookmakers pricing this bet above the no-vig fair near close — this story covers one of them. Members see the full board, live.
The setup — the analysis as published at detection, written 3.5 hours before start and frozen for the record. The market it describes has since closed; the outcome is above.
At detection—4 hours before Falkirk vs Heart of Midlothian (Scottish Premiership)—the draw-no-bet market has fractured across sportsbooks. FanDuel is quoting decimal odds of 2.82 on one side, a price sitting 5.1% above the fair value that independent sharp operators have established. This is active market data, not hindsight after the final whistle.
The FanDuel quote lands 2.5 standard deviations away from where the professional consensus has clustered—a statistical gap signaling structural mispricing rather than ordinary market scatter.
The fair line is anchored by 3 independent sharp sources across distributed professional models, rather than reflecting any single bookmaker's judgment.
Mispricings at this scale do not typically persist through to kickoff. In this market segment, comparable edges have historically compressed toward consensus within roughly 9 hours of detection.
Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.
AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW
· what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different,
already-settled matchPRO
Fenerbahçe vs Sturm Graz
· UEFA Champions League · Soccer — flagged side Fenerbahçe
@ 1.98
99Omen Score
This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal.
The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed,
so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked
🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).
High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
Bookmaker
Odds
Vs fair
Matchbook
2.10
+9.2%
BetOnline
1.98
+2.9%
SportsBetting.ag
1.98
+2.9%
Betr AU
1.93
+0.1%
BC.Game
1.91
-0.8%
betplay
1.91
-0.8%
rivalry
1.91
-0.8%
betwhale
1.91
-0.8%
Jazz Sports
1.91
-0.8%
Coolbet
1.90
-1.2%
SX.bet
1.88
-2.4%
betmania
1.88
-2.4%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
1.98 odds → 50% implied win probability
52%
Fair win probability
+3.9% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+4.8% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Aug 02, 03:51 UTC at 2.45 (+5.3% edge) → fair price at close 1.91 → closing-line value +21.6%
✅ Settled: WON · +1.45 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim
(read this signal's full story).
The live breakdown for Falkirk vs Heart of Midlothian
is on the member board now ·
unlock with Pro
Record settled · last updated Sep 15, 2026 20:42 UTC · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).