French Ligue 1 · Soccer · Sep 20, 2026 15:00 CEST

AuxerrevsBrest

1xBet overvalues one 1X2 outcome by 3.1% versus sharp consensus, 48 hours to kickoff

Offered at 1xBet2.61Fair price2.53+3.1% above fair

Omenizer detected 5 bookmakers pricing this bet above the no-vig fair at last refresh — this story covers one of them. Members see the full board, live.

LIVE SIGNAL · exactly as it appears on the member board
61
Omen Score
+3.1%
Edge vs sharp consensus
90
Confidence
4
Sharp sources
Flagged side: Brest @ 2.61 — best price at 1xBet
This is 1 of the live signals on the board right now · see them all with a free account
A SAMPLE OF BOOKMAKERS ON THIS MATCH · right now — every price against the same no-vig fair
BookmakerSideOddsVs fair
1xbetBrest2.61+3.1%
PointsBet (Australia)Brest2.60+2.7%
jazz-sportsBrest2.56+1.1%
betfair-exAuxerre3.00+0.8%
NorthStar BetsBrest2.55+0.7%
FireKeepersBrest2.54+0.3%
matchbookAuxerre2.98+0.2%
matchbookDraw3.70-0.5%
Mise-o-jeuBrest2.50-1.2%
betr (Australia)Brest2.50-1.2%
braccoBrest2.49-1.6%
playnowDraw3.65-1.9%
betwhaleBrest2.48-2.0%
bcgameBrest2.48-2.0%
betplayBrest2.48-2.0%
rivalryBrest2.48-2.0%
betfair-exBrest2.48-2.0%
matchbookBrest2.48-2.0%
saba-sportsBrest2.46-2.8%
boomersBrest2.45-3.2%

Margins and best-price rates for every book we track

In the 1X2 (match result) market for Auxerre vs Brest—a French Ligue 1 fixture 48 hours from start—1xBet has posted decimal 2.61 on one outcome, trading 3.1% above where four independent sharp operators have settled on fair value. The mispricing is open as of this writing, before the match begins.

This price deviates 3.0 standard deviations from the sharp cluster—a statistical distance that separates genuine mispricings from ordinary market chatter.

The consensus fair line rests on four independent sharp sources, anchoring the edge across multiple professional operators rather than isolating it to one book's view.

This edge class has a track record: across 4309 settled bets in soccer 1X2 (match result) at mid-range odds, the aggregate return has measured +3.0% ROI.

Edges in this market segment do not typically survive long: historical patterns suggest the price gap converges toward fair value within roughly 10 hours of detection.

Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.

AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW · what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different, already-settled match PRO
Fenerbahçe vs Sturm Graz · UEFA Champions League · Soccer — flagged side Fenerbahçe @ 1.98
99 Omen Score

This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal. The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed, so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked 🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).

Why this bet
+5.3%
Entry edge
+2.9%
Edge near close
+0.4%
Risk-adjusted edge
1.92
Fair price (no-vig)
2.45
Entry odds
Quality
95/100
Confidence
7
Sharp books
Prime signal
Class
Market state: Strong sharp consensus (3+ books) · priced from: Market consensus (no-vig)
Sizing
3.7%
Recommended stake
3.0%
Full Kelly (theoretical max)
Insights
High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
BookmakerOddsVs fair
Matchbook2.10+9.2%
BetOnline1.98+2.9%
SportsBetting.ag1.98+2.9%
Betr AU1.93+0.1%
BC.Game1.91-0.8%
betplay1.91-0.8%
rivalry1.91-0.8%
betwhale1.91-0.8%
Jazz Sports1.91-0.8%
Coolbet1.90-1.2%
SX.bet1.88-2.4%
betmania1.88-2.4%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
1.98 odds → 50% implied win probability
52%
Fair win probability
+3.9% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+4.8% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Aug 02, 03:51 UTC at 2.45 (+5.3% edge) → fair price at close 1.91 → closing-line value +21.6%
✅ Settled: WON · +1.45 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim (read this signal's full story). The live breakdown for Auxerre vs Brest is on the member board now · unlock with Pro
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Live market record · data refreshes with this page · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).