Tommy PaulvsCarlos Alcaraz
Every tracked price on Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz, against the same margin-free fair line.
| Bookmaker | Side | Odds | Vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|
| robinhood | Tommy Paul | 4.76 | +5.2% |
| kalshi | Tommy Paul | 4.72 | +4.3% |
| matchbook | Tommy Paul | 4.33 | -4.3% |
| Betfair Exchange (Australia) | Tommy Paul | 4.32 | -4.5% |
| betfair-ex | Tommy Paul | 4.32 | -4.5% |
| campobet | Carlos Alcaraz | 1.29 | -5.2% |
| Hard Rock (Florida) | Carlos Alcaraz | 1.29 | -5.2% |
| bovada | Carlos Alcaraz | 1.29 | -5.2% |
| Bodog | Carlos Alcaraz | 1.29 | -5.2% |
| Hard Rock (Illinois) | Carlos Alcaraz | 1.29 | -5.2% |
| Hard Rock | Carlos Alcaraz | 1.29 | -5.2% |
| 888sport | Carlos Alcaraz | 1.29 | -5.2% |
| coolbet | Carlos Alcaraz | 1.28 | -5.6% |
| superbet | Carlos Alcaraz | 1.28 | -5.6% |
| betjack | Carlos Alcaraz | 1.28 | -5.6% |
| betparx | Carlos Alcaraz | 1.28 | -5.8% |
| leyusports | Carlos Alcaraz | 1.28 | -5.8% |
| Unibet (Australia) | Carlos Alcaraz | 1.28 | -5.8% |
| betnation | Carlos Alcaraz | 1.28 | -5.8% |
| tabtouch | Carlos Alcaraz | 1.28 | -5.8% |
| 1xbet | Carlos Alcaraz | 1.28 | -5.8% |
| NorthStar Bets | Carlos Alcaraz | 1.28 | -5.8% |
| Proline | Carlos Alcaraz | 1.28 | -5.8% |
| STN Sports | Carlos Alcaraz | 1.28 | -5.8% |
| leovegas | Carlos Alcaraz | 1.28 | -5.8% |
| TwinSpires | Carlos Alcaraz | 1.28 | -5.8% |
| sugarhouse | Carlos Alcaraz | 1.28 | -5.8% |
| Rushbet | Carlos Alcaraz | 1.28 | -5.8% |
| betrivers | Carlos Alcaraz | 1.28 | -5.8% |
| Four Winds | Carlos Alcaraz | 1.28 | -5.8% |
| Desert Diamond | Carlos Alcaraz | 1.28 | -5.8% |
| Play Eagle | Carlos Alcaraz | 1.28 | -5.8% |
| unibet | Carlos Alcaraz | 1.28 | -5.8% |
| casumo | Carlos Alcaraz | 1.28 | -5.8% |
| draftkings | Carlos Alcaraz | 1.27 | -6.2% |
| betano | Carlos Alcaraz | 1.27 | -6.4% |
| betnation-au | Carlos Alcaraz | 1.27 | -6.4% |
| betdeluxe | Carlos Alcaraz | 1.27 | -6.4% |
| surgebet | Carlos Alcaraz | 1.27 | -6.4% |
| PointsBet (Australia) | Carlos Alcaraz | 1.26 | -7.1% |
No-vig fair odds (margin removed): Tommy Paul 4.52 · Carlos Alcaraz 1.36. How fair prices are made. Step through the devig math.
AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW
· what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different,
already-settled match
PRO
Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Kristina Liutova
· WTA Tour · Tennis — flagged side Kristina Liutova
@ 3.10
81
Omen Score
Why this bet
+12.0%
Entry edge
+7.2%
Edge near close
+0.8%
Risk-adjusted edge
2.89
Fair price (no-vig)
3.65
Entry odds
Quality
95/100
Confidence
3
Sharp books
Prime signal
Class
Market state: Strong sharp consensus (3+ books) · priced from: Sharp price
Sizing
4.5%
Recommended stake
3.4%
Full Kelly (theoretical max)
EV by devig methodthe same price run through every de-margining method
+9.7%
Shin
+8.4%
Power
+12.0%
Additive
-5.4%
Worst case
+12.0%
Multiplicative
Insights
High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
| Bookmaker | Odds | Vs fair |
|---|---|---|
| bwin | 3.10 | +7.2% |
| sportingbet | 3.10 | +7.2% |
| sportsinteraction | 3.10 | +7.2% |
| Superbet | 3.05 | +5.5% |
| SX.bet | 3.03 | +4.8% |
| Tailgate Exchange | 3.03 | +4.8% |
| Matchbook | 3.01 | +4.1% |
| Betway | 3.00 | +3.7% |
| Casumo | 3.00 | +3.7% |
| Unibet | 3.00 | +3.7% |
| Proline | 3.00 | +3.7% |
| betJACK | 3.00 | +3.7% |
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
3.10 odds → 32% implied win probability
35%
Fair win probability
+4.1% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+7.4% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Jul 27, 12:51 UTC at 3.65 (+12.0% edge) → fair price at close 3.18 → closing-line value +2.4%
✅ Settled: WON · +2.65 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim
(read this signal's full story).
The live breakdown for Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz
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