WTA Tour · Tennis · Jul 17, 2026 14:30 UTC · avg book margin 5.3%
Tereza ValentovavsAlina Korneeva
Valentova–Korneeva moneyline: Marca Apuestas soft at 2.31, 18 hours to serve
What happened: Final score: 0–2. The edge paid: the flagged side won, returning +1.31 units on a flat 1-unit stake. The closing line moved against the signal (-0.1% CLV) — honest note: on this one, the market did not confirm the edge. For the record: the flagged price stayed live for about 17 hours after detection before the edge closed.
This story covers a single signal — right now the member board has 488 live signals across 182 matches, found the same way.
The setup — the analysis as published at detection, written 18.3 hours before start and frozen for the record. The market it describes has since closed; the outcome is above.
The WTA moneyline between Tereza Valentova and Alina Korneeva has fragmented across sportsbooks, with Marca Apuestas quoting 2.31 in decimal odds—a price that sits 6.9% below independent sharp consensus. The gap is live and available now, with 18 hours remaining before the opening serve.
The consensus emerges from 3 separate sharp operators, meaning the fair price behind the edge reflects multiple independent judgments rather than a single bookmaker's estimation.
Four patterns from our Playbook overlay this matchup's structure and odds tier. The highest-returning pattern has achieved +7.5% on resolved positions.
Tennis moneyline signals at these odds have generated +4.5% ROI across 1787 settled bets in our historical sample.
Mispricings of this scale rarely persist through to match time. Market behavior suggests these gaps compress in roughly 12 hours as sharp money corrects the line.
Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.
AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW
· what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different,
already-settled matchPRO
Jiri Lehecka vs Stefanos Tsitsipas
· ATP World Tour · Tennis — flagged side Stefanos Tsitsipas
@ 2.69
90Omen Score
This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal.
The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed,
so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked
🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).
EV by devig methodthe same price run through every de-margining method
+4.7%
Shin
+4.1%
Power
+6.0%
Additive
+4.7%
Balanced
-5.4%
Worst case
+6.0%
Multiplicative
Insights
Price is 3.3σ from market consensus.High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
Bookmaker
Odds
Vs fair
Betano
2.69
+5.1%
bet105
2.66
+3.9%
SX.bet
2.63
+2.7%
Matchbook
2.63
+2.7%
Prophet X
2.63
+2.7%
Tailgate Exchange
2.63
+2.7%
STN Sports
2.62
+2.3%
Betfair Exchange
2.62
+2.3%
Betfair Exchange (AU)
2.62
+2.3%
4cx
2.61
+1.9%
Novig
2.60
+1.6%
Winpot
2.60
+1.6%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
2.69 odds → 37% implied win probability
39%
Fair win probability
+6.2% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+3.0% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Sep 03, 13:10 UTC at 3.00 (+6.0% edge) → fair price at close 2.63 → closing-line value +7.5%
✅ Settled: WON · +2.00 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim
(read this signal's full story).
The live breakdown for Tereza Valentova vs Alina Korneeva
is on the member board now ·
unlock with Pro
Record settled · last updated Jul 17, 2026 16:32 UTC · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).