WTA Tour · Tennis · Jul 20, 2026 16:30 UTC · avg book margin 6.9%
Toth–Ruggeri moneyline mispriced at BetUS: 7.1% soft to sharp consensus, 8 hours before serve
What happened: Final score: 1–2. This one lost. A real edge is a long-run average, not a per-bet promise — we publish every outcome either way. The closing line moved against the signal (-9.6% CLV) — honest note: on this one, the market did not confirm the edge. For the record: the flagged price stayed live for about 12 hours after detection before the edge closed.
Omenizer detected 5 bookmakers pricing this bet above the no-vig fair near close — this story covers one of them. Members see the full board, live.
BetUS is quoting 2.37 decimal odds on one side of the Amarissa Toth vs Jennifer Ruggeri (WTA Tour) moneyline, pricing it 7.1% below what six independent sharp sources consider fair value with 8 hours left until the match begins. The mismatch is live as you read this—not a post-mortem observation but an active pricing fracture.
This quote drifts 3.3 standard deviations from the field consensus—a statistical outlier well beyond the zone of ordinary market variance.
The consensus line rests on data from 3 independent sharp books, not a single operator's model or projection.
Five patterns from our Playbook align with this signal. The highest-returning variant has posted +7.7% ROI on its closed bets.
Tennis moneyline signals in this odds band have a trackable record: 1888 settled bets across comparable mispricings show +4.4% ROI, documenting how often these gaps compress in the bettor's favor.
Mispricings of this size rarely survive to first serve. Historically, tennis moneyline edges at this magnitude have corrected within roughly 12 hours as sharp money narrows the gap.
Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.
AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW
· what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different,
already-settled matchPRO
Mushuc Runa vs Orense SC
· Ecuadorian Serie A · Soccer — pick Mushuc Runa
@ 1.93
99Omen Score
This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal.
The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed,
so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked
🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).
EV by devig methodthe same price run through every de-margining method
+5.0%
Shin
+5.0%
Power
+5.0%
Additive
-3.1%
Worst case
+5.0%
Multiplicative
Insights
High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
Bookmaker
Odds
Vs fair
Bodog
1.93
+2.0%
Bovada
1.93
+2.0%
Heritage
1.92
+1.6%
Superbet
1.92
+1.6%
Betfair Exchange
1.92
+1.6%
Betfair Exchange (AU)
1.92
+1.6%
Betano
1.91
+1.1%
Betamapola
1.91
+1.1%
Fliff
1.87
-1.0%
Sportzino
1.83
-2.9%
BetDEX
1.81
-4.0%
Bet105
1.80
-4.7%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
1.93 odds → 52% implied win probability
53%
Fair win probability
+5.1% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+6.4% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
Proven Playbook matchesconditions are members-only
• steam entry + home side 🔒 (Soccer) — +7.9% settled ROI on 40% winners
• closing drift + liquid market 🔒 (Any) — +7.1% settled ROI on 43% winners
• early value + short odds 🔒 (Any) — +4.7% settled ROI on 41% winners
• consensus fade + late entry 🔒 (Any) — +4.1% settled ROI on 38% winners
Past performance
Based on 102 bets exactly like this one over the last 60 days
+7.9% 🔒
Closing line value
+8.6% 🔒
Average return
+3.6% 🔒
Beat the closing line
84%
Win rate
Likely ROI range: +3.1% to +4.4% 🔒
Statistically reliable winner: even the worst case is profitable
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Jul 20, 14:35 UTC at 2.10 (+5.0% edge) → fair price at close 1.90 → closing-line value +5.2%
✅ Settled: WON · +1.10 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim
(read this signal's full story).
The live breakdown for Amarissa Toth vs Jennifer Ruggeri
is on the member board now ·
unlock with Pro
Record settled · last updated Jul 20, 2026 19:51 UTC · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).