WTA Tour · Tennis · Jul 21, 2026 10:10 UTC · avg book margin 5.7%

Hon–Valentova moneyline: betamapola overvalues one side by 8.6% with 7 hours to serve

Offered at betamapola1.36Fair price1.25+8.6% above fair

This story covers a single signal — right now the member board has 848 live signals across 351 matches, found the same way.

A SAMPLE OF BOOKMAKERS ON THIS MATCH · right now — every price against the same no-vig fair
BookmakerSideOddsVs fair
SX.betPriscilla Hon9.20+6.9%
SX BetPriscilla Hon9.20+6.9%
BetManiaPriscilla Hon9.00+4.6%
BetOnlinePriscilla Hon8.54-0.7%
sportsbetting-agPriscilla Hon8.54-0.7%
Sportsbetting.agPriscilla Hon8.54-0.7%
matchbookPriscilla Hon8.45-1.8%
Matchbook ExchangePriscilla Hon8.45-1.8%
FanDuelPriscilla Hon8.40-2.4%
Betway (Alaska)Priscilla Hon8.40-2.4%
bet105Priscilla Hon8.21-4.6%
overtimemarketsPriscilla Hon8.20-4.7%
OvertimePriscilla Hon8.20-4.7%
prophet-xPriscilla Hon8.15-5.3%
Prophet XPriscilla Hon8.15-5.3%
matchbookTereza Valentova1.13-6.9%
Matchbook ExchangeTereza Valentova1.13-6.9%
NovigPriscilla Hon8.00-7.0%
BetAmapolaPriscilla Hon8.00-7.0%
prophet-xTereza Valentova1.12-7.1%

Margins and best-price rates for every book we track

Bookmakers have priced the Priscilla Hon vs Tereza Valentova (WTA Tour) moneyline differently, and betamapola's quote of 1.36 in decimal form sits 8.6% above what sharper operators consider fair. The gap is active now, 7 hours before first serve — not something to examine after the outcome settles.

The betamapola quote deviates 8.6 standard deviations from the consensus cluster — statistical scatter that goes well beyond normal market noise.

The consensus reflects pricing from 3 independent sharp sources, meaning the fair value beneath this edge isn't one operator's isolated take.

The signal corresponds to 4 patterns in our historical archive — the top-performing one has logged +16.3% ROI on closed bets.

Tennis moneyline edges at this odds tier have been trackable across 579 settled bets, returning +10.2% ROI historically in this exact market category.

Mispricings of this magnitude typically don't linger to serve time — comparable signals in tennis moneylines have historically corrected within about 12 hours as sharp action tightens the line.

Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.

AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW · what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different, already-settled match PRO
Inaki Montes-De La Torre vs Hynek Barton · ATP Challenger Tour · Tennis — pick Hynek Barton @ 2.20
82 Omen Score

This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal. The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed, so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked 🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).

Why this bet
+16.3%
Entry edge
+17.8%
Edge near close
1.87
Fair price (no-vig)
2.30
Entry odds
Quality
95/100
Confidence
1
Sharp books
High value
Class
Market state: Limited sharp coverage (1 book) · priced from: Sharp price
Sizing
12.5%
Recommended stake
14.8%
Full Kelly (theoretical max)
EV by devig methodthe edge survives every de-margining method
+16.3%
Shin
+16.4%
Power
+16.3%
Additive
+5.5%
Worst case
+16.3%
Multiplicative
Insights
Price is 7.6σ from market consensus.Fairline based on a single sharp source.Limited sharp data for this market.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
BookmakerOddsVs fair
1xBet2.20+17.8%
DraftKings1.81-3.3%
Unibet1.78-4.6%
Bet991.77-5.3%
Superbet1.77-5.3%
BetOnline1.77-5.3%
SportsBetting.ag1.77-5.3%
PointsBet1.77-5.3%
Betfair Exchange1.76-5.9%
Overtime Markets1.76-5.9%
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.76-5.9%
Neds1.75-6.2%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
2.20 odds → 45% implied win probability
54%
Fair win probability
+8.5% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+5.8% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
Past performance

Based on 1,131 bets exactly like this one over the last 60 days

+7.9% 🔒
Closing line value
+1.4% 🔒
Average return
+1.2% 🔒
Beat the closing line
39%
Win rate
Likely ROI range: +5.8% to +8.4% 🔒
No reliable edge either way: too close to break-even to call
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Jul 19, 18:46 UTC at 2.30 (+16.3% edge) → fair price at close 1.86 → closing-line value +6.3%
✅ Settled: WON · +1.30 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim (read this signal's full story). The live breakdown for Priscilla Hon vs Tereza Valentova is on the member board now · unlock with Pro
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Live market record · data refreshes with this page · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).