WTA Tour · Tennis · Jul 26, 2026 12:00 UTC · avg book margin 5.5%

Anna BondarvsTamara Korpatsch

Bondar–Korpatsch moneyline: Ninja Casino 5.2% soft to sharp consensus, 13 hours to serve

What happened: Final score: 0–2. The edge paid: the flagged side won, returning +1.17 units on a flat 1-unit stake. The closing line moved against the signal (-8.2% CLV) — honest note: on this one, the market did not confirm the edge. For the record: the flagged price stayed live for about 17 hours after detection before the edge closed.
Offered at Ninja Casino2.25Fair price2.14+5.2% above fair

Omenizer detected 3 bookmakers pricing this bet above the no-vig fair near close — this story covers one of them. Members see the full board, live.

The setup — the analysis as published at detection, written 13 hours before start and frozen for the record. The market it describes has since closed; the outcome is above.

The moneyline for Anna Bondar vs Tamara Korpatsch (WTA Tour) has fractured across sportsbooks with 13 hours until first serve. At Ninja Casino, one side trades at decimal odds of 2.25—that's 5.2% softer than where three independent sharp operators have independently priced the same outcome. The mispricing is open now.

Three separate sharp sources have converged on the consensus value, meaning this edge reflects aggregated professional calibration rather than any single operator's view.

Our historical Playbook identifies 3 patterns aligned with this signal. The highest-performing pattern has delivered +7.8% ROI on closed bets.

Tennis moneyline signals in the mid-odds band have returned +5.7% ROI across 2151 settled bets on record.

Mispricings at this width rarely persist through serve time. In comparable tennis moneyline markets, prices have typically compressed within roughly 12 hours.

Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.

AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW · what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different, already-settled match PRO
Jiri Lehecka vs Stefanos Tsitsipas · ATP World Tour · Tennis — flagged side Stefanos Tsitsipas @ 2.69
90 Omen Score

This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal. The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed, so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked 🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).

Why this bet
+6.0%
Entry edge
+5.1%
Edge near close
+0.5%
Risk-adjusted edge
2.56
Fair price (no-vig)
3.00
Entry odds
Quality
94/100
Confidence
3
Sharp books
Prime signal
Class
Market state: Strong sharp consensus (3+ books) · priced from: Sharp price
Sizing
0.97%
Recommended stake
3.0%
Full Kelly (theoretical max)
EV by devig methodthe same price run through every de-margining method
+4.7%
Shin
+4.1%
Power
+6.0%
Additive
+4.7%
Balanced
-5.4%
Worst case
+6.0%
Multiplicative
Insights
Price is 3.3σ from market consensus.High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
BookmakerOddsVs fair
Betano2.69+5.1%
bet1052.66+3.9%
SX.bet2.63+2.7%
Matchbook2.63+2.7%
Prophet X2.63+2.7%
Tailgate Exchange2.63+2.7%
STN Sports2.62+2.3%
Betfair Exchange2.62+2.3%
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.62+2.3%
4cx2.61+1.9%
Novig2.60+1.6%
Winpot2.60+1.6%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
2.69 odds → 37% implied win probability
39%
Fair win probability
+6.2% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+3.0% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Sep 03, 13:10 UTC at 3.00 (+6.0% edge) → fair price at close 2.63 → closing-line value +7.5%
✅ Settled: WON · +2.00 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim (read this signal's full story). The live breakdown for Anna Bondar vs Tamara Korpatsch is on the member board now · unlock with Pro
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Record settled · last updated Jul 26, 2026 14:06 UTC · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).