Omenizer detected 36 bookmakers pricing this bet above the no-vig fair at last refresh — this story covers one of them. Members see the full board, live.
LIVE SIGNAL · exactly as it appears on the member board
91
Omen Score
+12.0%
Edge vs sharp consensus
93
Confidence
3
Sharp sources
Flagged side: Brian Ortega
@ 2.80 — best price at betanysports
At detection—48 hours before Renato Moicano faces Brian Ortega in UFC—the moneyline has fractured across sportsbooks. betanysports is offering decimal odds of 2.80 on one side, a quote sitting 12.0% above the fair value that independent sharp operators have converged on. This captures active market data before the cage door closes, not settlement analysis after the final bell.
The betanysports price lands 2.2 standard deviations from where the professional consensus cluster has settled—a statistical distance that signals structural mispricing rather than ordinary market noise.
Three independent sharp sources anchor the consensus price, so the fair line behind this edge rests on multiple professional operators, not a single counterparty.
This signal aligns with 1 historically profitable pattern in the fighting moneyline segment: comparable edges have posted +9.0% ROI across settled wagers tracked on our board.
Mispricings in this exact market class—combat sport moneyline, mid-range odds—have historically compressed toward consensus within roughly 24 hours at detection. Across 99 settled bets in the segment, aggregate ROI reached +4.7%.
Edges at this magnitude do not typically persist to start time. The window for correction narrows as fight hour approaches.
Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.
AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW
· what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different,
already-settled matchPRO
Liam McCracken vs Silvestre Sanchez
· UFC · Fighting — flagged side Silvestre Sanchez
@ 2.20
81Omen Score
This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal.
The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed,
so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked
🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).
EV by devig methodthe edge survives every de-margining method
+14.9%
Shin
+14.4%
Power
+15.9%
Additive
+14.9%
Balanced
+2.6%
Worst case
+15.9%
Multiplicative
Insights
Price is 3.4σ from market consensus.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
Bookmaker
Odds
Vs fair
Coolbet
2.20
+0.3%
Ladbrokes AU
2.20
+0.3%
Bet99
2.15
-1.9%
4cx
2.11
-3.8%
BetOpenly
2.10
-4.2%
Novig
2.08
-5.1%
Betano
2.08
-5.1%
netbet
2.08
-5.1%
ibet
2.05
-6.5%
rizk
2.05
-6.5%
Betsafe
2.05
-6.5%
Betsson
2.05
-6.5%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
2.20 odds → 45% implied win probability
46%
Fair win probability
+3.3% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+1.4% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Sep 01, 00:02 UTC at 2.82 (+14.7% edge) → fair price at close 2.11 → closing-line value +16.7%
✅ Settled: WON · +1.82 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim
(read this signal's full story).
The live breakdown for Renato Moicano vs Brian Ortega
is on the member board now ·
unlock with Pro
Live market record · data refreshes with this page · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).