WTA Tour · Tennis · Aug 02, 2026 08:00 UTC · avg book margin 7.8%
Elena MicicvsGeorgina Garcia Perez
Micic–Garcia Perez moneyline: Sportsbet soft by 6.4% to sharp consensus, 4 hours before serve
What happened: Final score: 2–0. This one lost. A real edge is a long-run average, not a per-bet promise — we publish every outcome either way. The closing line moved against the signal (-1.2% CLV) — honest note: on this one, the market did not confirm the edge. For the record: the flagged price stayed live for about 14 hours after detection before the edge closed.
This story covers a single signal — right now the member board has 619 live signals across 302 matches, found the same way.
The setup — the analysis as published at detection, written 4.1 hours before start and frozen for the record. The market it describes has since closed; the outcome is above.
Sportsbet is quoting the Elena Micic vs Georgina Garcia Perez moneyline (WTA Tour) at decimal odds of 3.10—a price that sits 6.4% below where independent sharp operators have converged, with 4 hours until first serve. The gap is live and measurable as this page loads; the market is still adjusting.
Sportsbet's quote has drifted 4.2 standard deviations away from the market cluster. That amplitude rules out routine daily noise—it signals genuine mispricing.
The consensus reflects pricing from 3 separate sharp sources, so the fair value behind this edge isn't a single operator's view but overlapping professional judgment.
Our Playbook matches this signal to 5 historically profitable patterns; the highest-conviction variant has realized +10.3% ROI on its settled bets.
Tennis moneyline trades at mid-range odds have shown durability: across 2492 settled bets in this segment, the cumulative return was +7.7% ROI.
Mispricings at this amplitude don't persist through first serve. Historically, comparable edges in this market have compressed within roughly 10 hours of detection.
Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.
AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW
· what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different,
already-settled matchPRO
Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Kristina Liutova
· WTA Tour · Tennis — pick Kristina Liutova
@ 3.10
81Omen Score
This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal.
The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed,
so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked
🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).
EV by devig methodthe same price run through every de-margining method
+9.7%
Shin
+8.4%
Power
+12.0%
Additive
-5.4%
Worst case
+12.0%
Multiplicative
Insights
High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
Bookmaker
Odds
Vs fair
Bwin
3.10
+7.2%
Sportingbet
3.10
+7.2%
Sportsinteraction
3.10
+7.2%
Superbet
3.05
+5.5%
Sx.Bet
3.03
+4.8%
Tailgate Exchange
3.03
+4.8%
Matchbook
3.01
+4.1%
Betway
3.00
+3.7%
Casumo
3.00
+3.7%
Unibet
3.00
+3.7%
Proline
3.00
+3.7%
Betjack
3.00
+3.7%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
3.10 odds → 32% implied win probability
35%
Fair win probability
+4.1% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+7.4% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
Proven Playbook matchesconditions are members-only
• early value + short odds 🔒 (Any) — +7.9% settled ROI on 41% winners
• consensus fade + late entry 🔒 (Any) — +6.3% settled ROI on 43% winners
• steam entry + home side 🔒 (Any) — +4.3% settled ROI on 42% winners
Past performance
Based on 441 bets exactly like this one over the last 60 days
+7.0% 🔒
Closing line value
+7.7% 🔒
Average return
+6.3% 🔒
Beat the closing line
39%
Win rate
Likely ROI range: +3.2% to +8.3% 🔒
No reliable edge either way: too close to break-even to call
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Jul 27, 12:51 UTC at 3.65 (+12.0% edge) → fair price at close 3.18 → closing-line value +2.4%
✅ Settled: WON · +2.65 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim
(read this signal's full story).
The live breakdown for Elena Micic vs Georgina Garcia Perez
is on the member board now ·
unlock with Pro
Record settled · last updated Aug 02, 2026 10:02 UTC · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).