ATP World Tour · Tennis · Aug 03, 2026 15:00 UTC · avg book margin 5.2%
Hubert HurkaczvsMarcos Giron
Hurkacz–Giron moneyline was 9.2% soft at bwin; market closed toward the flagged side before play, validating the early catch
Omenizer detected 3 bookmakers pricing this bet above the no-vig fair near close — this story covers one of them. Members see the full board, live.
The setup — the analysis as published at detection, written before the game and frozen for the record. The market it describes has since closed; the outcome is above.
Hours before Hubert Hurkacz faced Marcos Giron on the ATP World Tour, our board caught a moneyline misprice at bwin: decimal odds of 3.25 sat 9.2% above where sharp consensus had priced the matchup. Liquidity was open to bettors willing to act at detection.
Match outcome: 2–1. The wager at the flagged price lost. Single results are variance — individual scorelines tell nothing about whether the original play was sound.
What professionals measure is closing-line value. Between detection and kickoff, the market shifted +13.0% toward the flagged side — that price motion encodes edge validity. A bet can lose and still represent correct play if the market moved in your direction.
Tennis moneyline positions flagged in this odds range have accumulated +8.3% ROI across 2622 resolved bets on the board since tracking began.
This analysis was produced before play started by the same system that surfaces mispricings every day. The live board displays edges while markets remain tradeable — once the match begins, the window closes.
Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.
AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW
· what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different,
already-settled matchPRO
Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Kristina Liutova
· WTA Tour · Tennis — flagged side Kristina Liutova
@ 3.10
81Omen Score
This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal.
The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed,
so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked
🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).
EV by devig methodthe same price run through every de-margining method
+9.7%
Shin
+8.4%
Power
+12.0%
Additive
-5.4%
Worst case
+12.0%
Multiplicative
Insights
High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
Bookmaker
Odds
Vs fair
bwin
3.10
+7.2%
sportingbet
3.10
+7.2%
sportsinteraction
3.10
+7.2%
Superbet
3.05
+5.5%
SX.bet
3.03
+4.8%
Tailgate Exchange
3.03
+4.8%
Matchbook
3.01
+4.1%
Betway
3.00
+3.7%
Casumo
3.00
+3.7%
Unibet
3.00
+3.7%
Proline
3.00
+3.7%
betJACK
3.00
+3.7%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
3.10 odds → 32% implied win probability
35%
Fair win probability
+4.1% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+7.4% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Jul 27, 12:51 UTC at 3.65 (+12.0% edge) → fair price at close 3.18 → closing-line value +2.4%
✅ Settled: WON · +2.65 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim
(read this signal's full story).
The live breakdown for Hubert Hurkacz vs Marcos Giron
is on the member board now ·
unlock with Pro
Record settled · last updated Aug 05, 2026 06:51 UTC · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).