What happened: Final score: 2–0. This one lost. A real edge is a long-run average, not a per-bet promise — we publish every outcome either way. The closing line moved against the signal (-0.9% CLV) — honest note: on this one, the market did not confirm the edge. For the record: the flagged price stayed live for about 6 hours after detection before the edge closed.
This story covers a single signal — right now the member board has 662 live signals across 274 matches, found the same way.
The setup — the analysis as published at detection, written 10.8 hours before start and frozen for the record. The market it describes has since closed; the outcome is above.
At detection, 11 hours before Jacob Fearnley and Adrian Mannarino take the court (ATP World Tour), the moneyline market shows a fracture: 888sport is quoting decimal odds of 2.75 on one side, a 7.4% gap above where independent sharp operators have positioned themselves. The pricing tension remains unresolved at this moment.
The outlier price deviates 4.6 standard deviations from the consensus cluster—well beyond the threshold of routine market variation.
Three independent sharp operators have converged on the consensus level, meaning the fair value anchoring this edge rests on overlapping professional judgment.
Our Playbook identifies 5 historical patterns matching this configuration. The strongest precedent has yielded +10.6% ROI on its settled outcomes.
Tennis moneyline signals at mid-range odds have produced +7.5% cumulative ROI across 2562 settled bets in our tracked record—the exact segment this edge occupies.
Pricing gaps of this magnitude have historically persisted for roughly 10 hours before convergence typically occurs.
Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.
AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW
· what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different,
already-settled matchPRO
Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Kristina Liutova
· WTA Tour · Tennis — flagged side Kristina Liutova
@ 3.10
81Omen Score
This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal.
The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed,
so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked
🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).
EV by devig methodthe same price run through every de-margining method
+9.7%
Shin
+8.4%
Power
+12.0%
Additive
-5.4%
Worst case
+12.0%
Multiplicative
Insights
High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
Bookmaker
Odds
Vs fair
bwin
3.10
+7.2%
sportingbet
3.10
+7.2%
sportsinteraction
3.10
+7.2%
Superbet
3.05
+5.5%
SX.bet
3.03
+4.8%
Tailgate Exchange
3.03
+4.8%
Matchbook
3.01
+4.1%
Betway
3.00
+3.7%
Casumo
3.00
+3.7%
Unibet
3.00
+3.7%
Proline
3.00
+3.7%
betJACK
3.00
+3.7%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
3.10 odds → 32% implied win probability
35%
Fair win probability
+4.1% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+7.4% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Jul 27, 12:51 UTC at 3.65 (+12.0% edge) → fair price at close 3.18 → closing-line value +2.4%
✅ Settled: WON · +2.65 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim
(read this signal's full story).
The live breakdown for Jacob Fearnley vs Adrian Mannarino
is on the member board now ·
unlock with Pro
Record settled · last updated Aug 04, 2026 19:10 UTC · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).