ATP World Tour · Tennis · Aug 05, 2026 18:50 UTC · avg book margin 5.1%
Alex MichelsenvsFrancisco Cerundolo
Michelsen–Cerundolo moneyline: Betano overvalues one outcome by 5.5% against sharp consensus, 2 hours from serve
What happened: Final score: 2–0. This one lost. A real edge is a long-run average, not a per-bet promise — we publish every outcome either way. The market agreed with the signal: the price closed +5.6% better than where the edge was flagged (positive closing-line value — the strongest sign the edge was real). For the record: the flagged price stayed live for about 13 hours after detection before the edge closed.
Omenizer detected 16 bookmakers pricing this bet above the no-vig fair near close — this story covers one of them. Members see the full board, live.
The setup — the analysis as published at detection, written 2.1 hours before start and frozen for the record. The market it describes has since closed; the outcome is above.
At detection—2 hours before Alex Michelsen and Francisco Cerundolo take the court on the ATP World Tour—Betano has priced the moneyline at decimal odds of 2.56, sitting 5.5% above where independent sharp operators have anchored their consensus. The pricing gap remains unresolved as of writing.
Betano's quote sits 3.0 standard deviations away from the cluster where competing bookmakers have anchored—statistical territory that signals real disagreement rather than ordinary market noise.
The consensus baseline draws from 3 independent sharp sources, grounding the underlying fair value in multiple professional perspectives rather than any single operator's judgment.
This signal aligns with 5 patterns from our Playbook. The strongest precedent has delivered +11.7% ROI across its settled bets.
Tennis moneyline edges in this odds range have accumulated +8.0% cumulative ROI across 2650 settled bets tracked on our board—this signal sits within that historical performance band.
Pricing gaps of this magnitude at detection have historically compressed within roughly 10 hours before the market corrects toward consensus.
Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.
AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW
· what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different,
already-settled matchPRO
Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Kristina Liutova
· WTA Tour · Tennis — flagged side Kristina Liutova
@ 3.10
81Omen Score
This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal.
The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed,
so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked
🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).
EV by devig methodthe same price run through every de-margining method
+9.7%
Shin
+8.4%
Power
+12.0%
Additive
-5.4%
Worst case
+12.0%
Multiplicative
Insights
High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
Bookmaker
Odds
Vs fair
bwin
3.10
+7.2%
sportingbet
3.10
+7.2%
sportsinteraction
3.10
+7.2%
Superbet
3.05
+5.5%
SX.bet
3.03
+4.8%
Tailgate Exchange
3.03
+4.8%
Matchbook
3.01
+4.1%
Betway
3.00
+3.7%
Casumo
3.00
+3.7%
Unibet
3.00
+3.7%
Proline
3.00
+3.7%
betJACK
3.00
+3.7%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
3.10 odds → 32% implied win probability
35%
Fair win probability
+4.1% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+7.4% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Jul 27, 12:51 UTC at 3.65 (+12.0% edge) → fair price at close 3.18 → closing-line value +2.4%
✅ Settled: WON · +2.65 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim
(read this signal's full story).
The live breakdown for Alex Michelsen vs Francisco Cerundolo
is on the member board now ·
unlock with Pro
Record settled · last updated Aug 05, 2026 22:42 UTC · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).