ATP World Tour · Tennis · Aug 05, 2026 20:00 UTC · avg book margin 5.3%
Ugo HumbertvsDaniel Merida Aguilar
Humbert–Merida Aguilar moneyline: BetNation quotes 19.6% above sharp consensus at 3.60 odds, 11 hours to serve
What happened: Final score: 0–2. The edge paid: the flagged side won, returning +2.80 units on a flat 1-unit stake. The market agreed with the signal: the price closed +2.7% better than where the edge was flagged (positive closing-line value — the strongest sign the edge was real). For the record: the flagged price stayed live for about 16 hours after detection before the edge closed.
Omenizer detected 4 bookmakers pricing this bet above the no-vig fair near close — this story covers one of them. Members see the full board, live.
The setup — the analysis as published at detection, written 11.3 hours before start and frozen for the record. The market it describes has since closed; the outcome is above.
At detection—11 hours before Ugo Humbert vs Daniel Merida Aguilar (ATP World Tour)—BetNation is offering decimal odds of 3.60 on one side of the moneyline, sitting 19.6% above where independent sharp operators have converged. The dislocation remains unresolved as of writing.
That quote lands 5.6 standard deviations beyond the cluster where other books have settled—a statistical rarity that signals genuine market disagreement rather than routine pricing variance.
Three independent sharp sources anchor the consensus baseline, so the fair value embedded in this edge reflects professional agreement rather than any single operator's view.
Our Playbook flags 6 historical patterns that match this signal configuration. The strongest precedent has delivered +11.7% ROI when settled.
Tennis moneyline signals in this odds band have accumulated +8.3% cumulative ROI across 2624 settled bets tracked on our board—this edge falls squarely within that segment.
Dislocations of this size have historically compressed before first serve, typically persisting for around 10 hours after detection before the market corrects toward consensus.
Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.
AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW
· what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different,
already-settled matchPRO
Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Kristina Liutova
· WTA Tour · Tennis — flagged side Kristina Liutova
@ 3.10
81Omen Score
This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal.
The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed,
so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked
🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).
EV by devig methodthe same price run through every de-margining method
+9.7%
Shin
+8.4%
Power
+12.0%
Additive
-5.4%
Worst case
+12.0%
Multiplicative
Insights
High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
Bookmaker
Odds
Vs fair
bwin
3.10
+7.2%
sportingbet
3.10
+7.2%
sportsinteraction
3.10
+7.2%
Superbet
3.05
+5.5%
SX.bet
3.03
+4.8%
Tailgate Exchange
3.03
+4.8%
Matchbook
3.01
+4.1%
Betway
3.00
+3.7%
Casumo
3.00
+3.7%
Unibet
3.00
+3.7%
Proline
3.00
+3.7%
betJACK
3.00
+3.7%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
3.10 odds → 32% implied win probability
35%
Fair win probability
+4.1% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+7.4% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Jul 27, 12:51 UTC at 3.65 (+12.0% edge) → fair price at close 3.18 → closing-line value +2.4%
✅ Settled: WON · +2.65 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim
(read this signal's full story).
The live breakdown for Ugo Humbert vs Daniel Merida Aguilar
is on the member board now ·
unlock with Pro
Record settled · last updated Aug 06, 2026 00:41 UTC · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).