ATP World Tour · Tennis · Aug 05, 2026 20:00 UTC · avg book margin 5.0%
Ugo HumbertvsDaniel Merida Aguilar
Humbert–Merida Aguilar moneyline was 18.4% soft at Coolbet; closing-line value validated the edge before the 0–2 result
Omenizer detected 4 bookmakers pricing this bet above the no-vig fair near close — this story covers one of them. Members see the full board, live.
The setup — the analysis as published at detection, written before the game and frozen for the record. The market it describes has since closed; the outcome is above.
At detection, hours ahead of the ATP World Tour match between Ugo Humbert and Daniel Merida Aguilar, our board caught a moneyline misprice at Coolbet: decimal odds of 3.80 sat 18.4% above the sharp consensus. The inefficiency retained enough depth for a bet to execute at detection.
The match settled 0–2. A single unit wagered at the flagged price returned +2.80 units.
Individual results are noise; outcome alone does not measure bet quality. Professionals rely on closing-line value to judge soundness. Between detection and the start of play, the price drifted +2.7% toward the flagged side, encoding edge validity in market movement rather than the scoreline.
Tennis moneyline positions flagged at these mid-range odds tiers have posted +8.0% ROI across 2677 resolved signals on the board since tracking began.
This analysis was produced before play started by the system that surfaces mispricings daily. The live board displays edges while they remain tradeable; once the match begins, the window closes.
Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.
AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW
· what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different,
already-settled matchPRO
Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Kristina Liutova
· WTA Tour · Tennis — flagged side Kristina Liutova
@ 3.10
81Omen Score
This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal.
The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed,
so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked
🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).
EV by devig methodthe same price run through every de-margining method
+9.7%
Shin
+8.4%
Power
+12.0%
Additive
-5.4%
Worst case
+12.0%
Multiplicative
Insights
High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
Bookmaker
Odds
Vs fair
bwin
3.10
+7.2%
sportingbet
3.10
+7.2%
sportsinteraction
3.10
+7.2%
Superbet
3.05
+5.5%
SX.bet
3.03
+4.8%
Tailgate Exchange
3.03
+4.8%
Matchbook
3.01
+4.1%
Betway
3.00
+3.7%
Casumo
3.00
+3.7%
Unibet
3.00
+3.7%
Proline
3.00
+3.7%
betJACK
3.00
+3.7%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
3.10 odds → 32% implied win probability
35%
Fair win probability
+4.1% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+7.4% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Jul 27, 12:51 UTC at 3.65 (+12.0% edge) → fair price at close 3.18 → closing-line value +2.4%
✅ Settled: WON · +2.65 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim
(read this signal's full story).
The live breakdown for Ugo Humbert vs Daniel Merida Aguilar
is on the member board now ·
unlock with Pro
Record settled · last updated Aug 06, 2026 07:02 UTC · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).