ATP World Tour · Tennis · Aug 06, 2026 00:10 UTC · avg book margin 5.4%
Learner TienvsGael Monfils
Tien–Monfils moneyline: 4cx overvalues one outcome by 5.2% against sharp consensus, 9 hours from serve
What happened: Final score: 2–1. This one lost. A real edge is a long-run average, not a per-bet promise — we publish every outcome either way. The closing line moved against the signal (-4.1% CLV) — honest note: on this one, the market did not confirm the edge. For the record: the flagged price stayed live for about 8 hours after detection before the edge closed.
Omenizer detected 3 bookmakers pricing this bet above the no-vig fair near close — this story covers one of them. Members see the full board, live.
The setup — the analysis as published at detection, written 9.3 hours before start and frozen for the record. The market it describes has since closed; the outcome is above.
At detection—9 hours before Learner Tien takes on Gael Monfils on the ATP World Tour—a pricing gap has opened in the moneyline market. 4cx has quoted decimal odds of 3.53 on one side, running 5.2% higher than the consensus established by independent sharp operators. The dislocation remains unresolved as of writing.
The 4cx quote sits 2.3 standard deviations away from the cluster where competing bookmakers have anchored their pricing—a statistical outlier indicating real disagreement rather than routine market noise.
Three independent sharp sources form the consensus baseline, meaning the fair value behind this edge rests on multiple professional assessments rather than any single operator's judgment.
Six patterns from our Playbook align with this signal's characteristics. The best-performing precedent among them has delivered +11.7% ROI on its settled bets.
Tennis moneyline edges in this odds range have accumulated +8.0% cumulative ROI across 2646 settled bets on our tracker—this signal sits within that historical performance band.
Pricing gaps of this magnitude at detection have historically compressed within about 10 hours before the market corrects toward consensus.
Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.
AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW
· what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different,
already-settled matchPRO
Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Kristina Liutova
· WTA Tour · Tennis — flagged side Kristina Liutova
@ 3.10
81Omen Score
This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal.
The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed,
so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked
🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).
EV by devig methodthe same price run through every de-margining method
+9.7%
Shin
+8.4%
Power
+12.0%
Additive
-5.4%
Worst case
+12.0%
Multiplicative
Insights
High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
Bookmaker
Odds
Vs fair
bwin
3.10
+7.2%
sportingbet
3.10
+7.2%
sportsinteraction
3.10
+7.2%
Superbet
3.05
+5.5%
SX.bet
3.03
+4.8%
Tailgate Exchange
3.03
+4.8%
Matchbook
3.01
+4.1%
Betway
3.00
+3.7%
Casumo
3.00
+3.7%
Unibet
3.00
+3.7%
Proline
3.00
+3.7%
betJACK
3.00
+3.7%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
3.10 odds → 32% implied win probability
35%
Fair win probability
+4.1% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+7.4% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Jul 27, 12:51 UTC at 3.65 (+12.0% edge) → fair price at close 3.18 → closing-line value +2.4%
✅ Settled: WON · +2.65 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim
(read this signal's full story).
The live breakdown for Learner Tien vs Gael Monfils
is on the member board now ·
unlock with Pro
Record settled · last updated Aug 06, 2026 03:21 UTC · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).