ITF Men · Tennis · Aug 13, 2026 09:00 UTC · avg book margin 8.5%
Niklas SchellvsBruno Fernandez
Schell–Fernandez moneyline: Hard Rock mispriced at +12.0%, market tightened before serve with positive closing-line value
This story covers a single signal — right now the member board has 710 live signals across 330 matches, found the same way.
The setup — the analysis as published at detection, written before the game and frozen for the record. The market it describes has since closed; the outcome is above.
At detection, Hard Rock quoted the Niklas Schell vs Bruno Fernandez moneyline (ITF Men) at decimal 3.60, sitting 12.0% wide of the sharp consensus. The board surfaced the inefficiency in the window before play began, and bettors who executed captured that price before it moved.
Match outcome: 2–0. The flagged side won, returning +2.60 units on a 1-unit stake.
Between detection and the opening serve, the market shifted +4.8% toward the flagged position—positive closing-line value. Professionals measure detection by market repricing, not by match results, because CLV compounds across many bets while outcomes remain random noise.
Tennis moneyline detections in this odds tier have aggregated +6.6% ROI across 2925 settled signals on the board.
The detection engine runs before the opening serve, surfacing mispricings as they form on the live board. Each signal remains visible only while the execution window is open; this page was written at detection, not in hindsight.
Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.
AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW
· what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different,
already-settled matchPRO
Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Kristina Liutova
· WTA Tour · Tennis — flagged side Kristina Liutova
@ 3.10
81Omen Score
This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal.
The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed,
so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked
🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).
EV by devig methodthe same price run through every de-margining method
+9.7%
Shin
+8.4%
Power
+12.0%
Additive
-5.4%
Worst case
+12.0%
Multiplicative
Insights
High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
Bookmaker
Odds
Vs fair
Bwin
3.10
+7.2%
Sportingbet
3.10
+7.2%
Sportsinteraction
3.10
+7.2%
Superbet
3.05
+5.5%
Sx.Bet
3.03
+4.8%
Tailgate Exchange
3.03
+4.8%
Matchbook
3.01
+4.1%
Betway
3.00
+3.7%
Casumo
3.00
+3.7%
Unibet
3.00
+3.7%
Proline
3.00
+3.7%
Betjack
3.00
+3.7%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
3.10 odds → 32% implied win probability
35%
Fair win probability
+4.1% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+7.4% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
Proven Playbook matchesconditions are members-only
• early value + short odds 🔒 (Any) — +7.9% settled ROI on 41% winners
• consensus fade + late entry 🔒 (Any) — +6.3% settled ROI on 43% winners
• steam entry + home side 🔒 (Any) — +4.3% settled ROI on 42% winners
Past performance
Based on 441 bets exactly like this one over the last 60 days
+7.0% 🔒
Closing line value
+7.7% 🔒
Average return
+6.3% 🔒
Beat the closing line
39%
Win rate
Likely ROI range: +3.2% to +8.3% 🔒
No reliable edge either way: too close to break-even to call
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Jul 27, 12:51 UTC at 3.65 (+12.0% edge) → fair price at close 3.18 → closing-line value +2.4%
✅ Settled: WON · +2.65 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim
(read this signal's full story).
The live breakdown for Niklas Schell vs Bruno Fernandez
is on the member board now ·
unlock with Pro
Record settled · last updated Aug 13, 2026 17:21 UTC · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).