ATP World Tour · Tennis · Aug 13, 2026 14:00 UTC · avg book margin 5.1%
Corentin MoutetvsHubert Hurkacz
Moutet–Hurkacz moneyline at Duel trades 5.7% above sharp consensus, 19 hours from ATP serve
Omenizer detected 3 bookmakers pricing this bet above the no-vig fair at last refresh — this story covers one of them. Members see the full board, live.
LIVE SIGNAL · exactly as it appears on the member board
75
Omen Score
+2.5%
Edge vs sharp consensus
45
Confidence
2
Sharp sources
Flagged side: Corentin Moutet
@ 2.86 — best price at 1xBet
Fits 2 Playbook patterns — strongest has realized +11.7% on settled bets
With 19 hours remaining before Corentin Moutet and Hubert Hurkacz take the court on the ATP World Tour, Duel's moneyline quote has drifted away from independent sharp operators. The decimal odds of 2.84 represent a 5.7% overvaluation compared to the consensus fair line—a measurable pricing gap that remains unresolved as of writing.
Duel's price sits 2.6 standard deviations beyond the consensus cluster, marking a structural separation rather than ordinary market movement.
The fair-value benchmark draws from 3 independent sharp sources, so the consensus reflects multiple professional operators rather than a single book's positioning.
This signal overlaps with 2 historically profitable patterns in our Playbook—the stronger of the two has generated +11.7% return on settled bets.
Tennis moneyline trades in this odds range have a documented track record: 2879 settled bets tracked in our archive returned +6.5% cumulative ROI—a useful precedent for how comparable dislocations have resolved.
Pricing gaps of this magnitude typically compress before first serve. In this market segment, comparable edges have historically persisted for roughly 9 hours from detection.
Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.
AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW
· what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different,
already-settled matchPRO
Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Kristina Liutova
· WTA Tour · Tennis — flagged side Kristina Liutova
@ 3.10
81Omen Score
This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal.
The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed,
so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked
🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).
EV by devig methodthe same price run through every de-margining method
+9.7%
Shin
+8.4%
Power
+12.0%
Additive
-5.4%
Worst case
+12.0%
Multiplicative
Insights
High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
Bookmaker
Odds
Vs fair
Bwin
3.10
+7.2%
Sportingbet
3.10
+7.2%
Sportsinteraction
3.10
+7.2%
Superbet
3.05
+5.5%
Sx.Bet
3.03
+4.8%
Tailgate Exchange
3.03
+4.8%
Matchbook
3.01
+4.1%
Betway
3.00
+3.7%
Casumo
3.00
+3.7%
Unibet
3.00
+3.7%
Proline
3.00
+3.7%
Betjack
3.00
+3.7%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
3.10 odds → 32% implied win probability
35%
Fair win probability
+4.1% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+7.4% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
Proven Playbook matchesconditions are members-only
• early value + short odds 🔒 (Any) — +7.9% settled ROI on 41% winners
• consensus fade + late entry 🔒 (Any) — +6.3% settled ROI on 43% winners
• steam entry + home side 🔒 (Any) — +4.3% settled ROI on 42% winners
Past performance
Based on 441 bets exactly like this one over the last 60 days
+7.0% 🔒
Closing line value
+7.7% 🔒
Average return
+6.3% 🔒
Beat the closing line
39%
Win rate
Likely ROI range: +3.2% to +8.3% 🔒
No reliable edge either way: too close to break-even to call
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Jul 27, 12:51 UTC at 3.65 (+12.0% edge) → fair price at close 3.18 → closing-line value +2.4%
✅ Settled: WON · +2.65 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim
(read this signal's full story).
The live breakdown for Corentin Moutet vs Hubert Hurkacz
is on the member board now ·
unlock with Pro
Live market record · data refreshes with this page · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).