ATP World Tour · Tennis · Aug 15, 2026 17:20 UTC · avg book margin 5.6%
Arthur FeryvsJames Duckworth
Fery–Duckworth moneyline at Unibet UK trades 6.0% soft to sharp consensus, 8 hours before serve
What happened: Final score: 1–0. This one lost. A real edge is a long-run average, not a per-bet promise — we publish every outcome either way. The market agreed with the signal: the price closed +13.6% better than where the edge was flagged (positive closing-line value — the strongest sign the edge was real). For the record: the flagged price stayed live for about 14 hours after detection before the edge closed.
Omenizer detected 10 bookmakers pricing this bet above the no-vig fair near close — this story covers one of them. Members see the full board, live.
The setup — the analysis as published at detection, written 8.5 hours before start and frozen for the record. The market it describes has since closed; the outcome is above.
At detection—8 hours before Arthur Fery takes on James Duckworth on the ATP World Tour—Unibet UK's moneyline quote has drifted to decimal odds of 2.29, a level running 6.0% beneath where independent sharp operators have clustered their valuations. The mispricing is live and available at analysis. This gap persists as a structural outlier, not routine market churn.
The consensus fair line draws from 3 independent sharp sources, anchoring the benchmark in distributed professional judgment rather than a single operator's model.
This signal aligns with 1 historically profitable pattern in our archive—the top-performing variant has compounded to +10.1% across its settled bet cohort.
The record on tennis moneyline signals at mid-range odds spans 3010 settled bets. Comparable pricings in this exact segment have generated +6.9% cumulative ROI, establishing precedent for how such dislocations have resolved.
Mispricings of this type do not linger: comparable edges in this market segment have typically compressed toward consensus within roughly 9 hours from detection.
Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.
AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW
· what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different,
already-settled matchPRO
Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Kristina Liutova
· WTA Tour · Tennis — flagged side Kristina Liutova
@ 3.10
81Omen Score
This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal.
The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed,
so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked
🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).
EV by devig methodthe same price run through every de-margining method
+9.7%
Shin
+8.4%
Power
+12.0%
Additive
-5.4%
Worst case
+12.0%
Multiplicative
Insights
High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
Bookmaker
Odds
Vs fair
bwin
3.10
+7.2%
sportingbet
3.10
+7.2%
sportsinteraction
3.10
+7.2%
Superbet
3.05
+5.5%
SX.bet
3.03
+4.8%
Tailgate Exchange
3.03
+4.8%
Matchbook
3.01
+4.1%
Betway
3.00
+3.7%
Casumo
3.00
+3.7%
Unibet
3.00
+3.7%
Proline
3.00
+3.7%
betJACK
3.00
+3.7%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
3.10 odds → 32% implied win probability
35%
Fair win probability
+4.1% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+7.4% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Jul 27, 12:51 UTC at 3.65 (+12.0% edge) → fair price at close 3.18 → closing-line value +2.4%
✅ Settled: WON · +2.65 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim
(read this signal's full story).
The live breakdown for Arthur Fery vs James Duckworth
is on the member board now ·
unlock with Pro
Record settled · last updated Aug 15, 2026 22:39 UTC · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).